Financial News vs. Noise
Today we launch SKRE, which will provide 2x inverse exposure to KRE (regional banks). For more information:
https://www.shortregionalbanks.com/
3 red days in a row and people are starting to panic, I can imagine that CNBC will be running a Market’s in Turmoil special any day. I continue to believe we will have some issues when market expectations and Fed expectations for interest rate cuts collide, but I don’t think that is now. Fed minutes came out yesterday and my sense is they were hawkish:
Fed Minutes Suggest Hikes Are Over, But Offer No Timetable on Cuts-WSJ
“It was possible that the economy could evolve in a manner that would make further increases in the target rate appropriate,” the minutes said. “Several also observed that circumstances might warrant keeping the target range at its current value for longer than they currently anticipated.”
This is also something to keep an eye on. Bond Traders Show Early Signs of Doubting Dovish Fed Pivot-Bloomberg
Bond traders who just days ago were piling into wagers for more than six interest-rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year already appear to be having second thoughts.
The bond guys are typically smarter than the stock guys. If they bring down expectations for rate cuts that becomes a problem. This is funny:
Stocks’ Bad Start to 2024 Has Forecasters on Edge-WSJ
We already know they are going to be wrong, what’s to be uneasy about?
I think the opportunity of the day was anything in the crypto space. News came out of a delay in the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF, which I think was false. As you may be aware we are now in that game with a filing of our own, so stay tuned :) Crypto looks set to bounce so far this morning, but be aware I have no idea if we get a sell the news reaction once the spot gets approved. I do think spot Bitcoin ETFs are extremely bullish for Bitcoin, but have no sense about whether all that is currently priced in. I bought CLSK but any miner will do.
Precious metals and miners are bouncing pre market. To be real bullish would have much preferred dovish Fed minutes, which I don’t think we got. I added AG in silver yesterday but won’t stay there long if I don’t see some sort of movement.
Industrial metals are starting to look interesting again after a bit of a plunge. I still think you use weakness to buy into anything commodity related, and both AA and FCX have pulled back into support.
Staying on the commodities theme, we picked up CVE yesterday.
We trimmed China exposure yesterday. I still think China is interesting, but it is one of those areas you trade, don’t own.
We also went back into UVXY puts. If we see it spike back up to the $10 level then we will add more.
I would like to add a few shorts in case this selloff is real. Yesterday I went short COF.
I missed the airlines short and may look for a bounce and see how the charts look. Would love to short ANF and try to make back some of the money I have lost on it, but that one is a widowmaker so we will see if I have the guts.
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Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
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