Financial News vs. Noise
PPI came in very cool, but the inflation move was Tuesday. You saw yields move up rather hard, Dollar up, Gold down. My sense is that was an opportunity to buy TLT and GLD. The SPX broke 4500 and now yearly highs are on the table. My sense still is that we really into year end, however, the market is extremely overextended. They tried to pull it green to red yesterday, but bulls stepped in. I would continue to look to buy dips.
China was another area of interest yesterday as it felt like it might be starting an upmove. This morning that is all being retraced. BABA is selling off, but I do not think they have announced earnings yet this morning, which could either exacerbate or reverse the move. We are long KWEB and may look to add if the 200 day holds, or exit if it doesn’t.
We also added silver (SLV) yesterday as it peaked above it’s 200 day.
Lithium stocks are looking interesting to me this morning, ALB, LAC, and LTHM all look like they want to come off the bottom. I have recently spent a lot of time learning about the supply/demand issues around physical lithium from Will McDonough at EMG Advisors who has the only lithium futures ETF. I do think owning actual lithium exposure is a great way to play the EV boom, for a trade I may take one of these stocks and see if they can get some momentum.
Oil stocks are another interesting area. I see a lot of smart guys shorting them and if you look at the area I am often the most wrong about, it’s oil stocks. That being said, I am long CVX, I love the set up. It, and oil, are down this morning so I could be wrong again.
Not minding being a glutton for punishment, the natural gas stocks also look interesting.
Keeping with the energy theme BTU could be interesting here. It’s technically in a short sale position 2 cents below it’s 200 day. Doubt it would short it, perhaps a long if it moves back above.
Biotech is another area of interest. I tend to like buying the fat loss plays on dips, LLY and NVO. SDGR is a name I took profits on, too early, on Tuesday. It bumped into it’s 200 day so I may get back in if it moves back to the 50.
I got stopped out of an attempt at ROIV yesterday, but will continue to watch. PFE and MRNA could also be interesting and Cramer was negative on MRNA the other day.
ON could be an interesting way to play the semis. It tanked on October 30 but has been working it’s way back and looks like it may want to try to fill the gap. It failed at the 20 day EMA yesterday though.
On the short side I am back in AX, RILY, and TRUP and continue to look for spots to add to those.
Subscribe to our other newsletters
Laffer Tengler Research Bulletin
News vs. Noise
Don’t put a lot of stock in her predictive powers. Deflation is now the ‘greater risk’ because the Fed overtightened, says Cathie Wood-MarketWatch
Marco hasn’t been much better, but I do think the risk/reward isn’t great until we consolidate these gains. S&P 500 close to exiting correction territory as JPMorgan warns risk-reward in stocks appears ‘unattractive’-MarketWatch
And, Burry hasn’t been good either. Why ‘Big Short’ Investor Michael Burry Is Betting Against Nvidia and Other Chip Stocks-Barron’s
We will see, sure felt like one yesterday but no follow through today. U.S.-China Tensions Thaw. Why It Isn’t a Buy Signal.-Barron’s
Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
At Tuttle Capital Management (“TCM”), we want to help educate investors about different ways to allocate and manage assets. TCM strives to create innovative portfolio management tools coupled with investment strategies designed to help mitigate risks and potentially enhance returns.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day. The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades.
Tuttle Capital Management is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investor’s financial situation.
© 2023 Tuttle Capital Management LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved.
