Financial News vs. Noise
Last trading day of the year and futures are pretty flat. As far as today goes it’s a crapshoot, nobody could be trading and we could end up flat, or you could have last minute big positioning moves in an otherwise low volume market. Only real excitement yesterday was a late day sell off in TSLA. If it holds it’s 10 day I may buy some today.
Gold miners also sold off, with GFI really tanking, so I did pick up some of that and some NUGT.
Will have GEO on watch today. Looks like they announced some sort of secondary offering which is taking the stock pre market. Will be watching the 10 and 20 to see if either can hold.
China still one of the only areas not extended.
Not sure I want to short anything at the moment, but AAL looks interesting.
ANF looks like it could be finally curling, but that’s the widowmaker trade for shorts.
It has been quite a year. You had the collapse of regional banks and near collapse of some commercial real estate, then the year totally flipped when NVDA put AI on the map. We also had the coining of the term “Magnificent 7” to replace FAANG. We ended with a perceived Powell pivot to spark a rally unlike anything we typically see. This is a time to reflect on what you did right and wrong, and what you will improve on next year. Don’t beat yourself up if you didn’t have eye popping returns this year. Unless you were chock full of Mag 7 names and/or bought near the bottom in November and held, then your results are likely mediocre. All things easy to do in hindsight, but less so in real time.
How I, and Everyone Else, Got 2023 So Wrong-WSJ
What Did Wall Street Get Right About Markets This Year? Not Much-WSJ
Coming into this year you saw institutions offsides in tech, and we saw what happened. My sense 2024 it will be commodities and maybe you see Treasuries snap back to the downside.
Why 2023 was a tough year for commodities even as gold and orange-juice prices hit records-MarketWatch
I also think emerging markets could be a place to be. I do not make long term predictions, but I think you always need to have a sense of what the macro environment could be and where the major players are positioning, but you always trade based on what you see, not what you think. Happy New Year
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Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
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