Financial News vs. Noise
Wow. Interesting end of the day. A 10 minute chart of SPY puts it in perspective…
Basically saw SPY move around 1% in the last 20 minutes. Oppenheimer saying they saw $21.7 BN going into S&P E mini futures in the last 11 minutes. Whenever you see a move like this, especially on Friday when you have a lot of options expiring, you wonder whether it is technical or whether that was real demand from bulls. Also last day of the month you can have people repositioning. So far this morning looks like it’s sticking but watch out for a green to red move.
Rates continued to drop, which is bullish for stocks. Non farm payrolls on Friday are going to be the key macro event.
Semi’s were weak, but way off the lows and SMH pulled an undercut and rally at the 10 day and could be buyable here.
NVDA up big this morning, I think on this. Nvidia Unveils Next-Generation Rubin AI Platform for 2026-Bloomberg
The Dow had a huge rally, but a lot of that was probably a snap back in CRM. Certainly saw a rotation out of growth names into value, as of now I would assume that creates a dip buying opportunity in growth and not the start of something.
Hopefully I’m right because I bought the dips in AVGO, MU, DELL, TSM, MSFT, GOOGL, PANW, SAP, CRWD, and NVDA. Today I am looking to add to AMZN and to buy CRM.
Blackout week for the Fed and a busy week for other central banks….
Over the weekend Roaring Kitty tweeted about a GME trade, so this is happening again…
The most interesting move created by the Trump verdict was SWBI…
Going to take some profits there but still hold it in some longer term models.
DJT could get interesting. I use a mean reversion model based on Williams %R for this and it almost triggered a buy. Another dip today and we will probably go long. Talked to Newsweek about how much Trump lost in the slide. Donald Trump Loses $314 Million as Truth Social Stock Plunges-Newsweek
Lot of talk about coal lately in the massive power grab that AI needs to function. BTU is a name I trade often and I currently own in a longer term model. Added some of the other coal names—ARCH and HCC to my list of potentials, would only be buying them on dips though.
Love to see this, means more dip buying opportunities in China. Going to be adding to BIDU today. China’s Stock Rally Is Unraveling but Some Strategists See Hope-Barron’s
Agree, wouldn’t be reading too much into this. Retailers like Gap and Foot Locker had a strong week. That doesn’t spell a consumer comeback-CNBC.com. Speaking of the consumer and the economy, lots of talk over the weekend about the Chicago PMI reading which is flashing recession. Then you have this. A "Restaurant Apocalypse" Is Starting To Sweep Across America, And That Is Really Bad News For The U.S. Economy-ZeroHedge
You can get a really good idea how the U.S. economy is doing by watching restaurants in your area. When the economy is booming, restaurant parking lots are full and chains are feverishly establishing new locations. But when the economy is struggling, restaurants get a lot less traffic and poor performing locations get shut down. Sadly, in 2024 it appears that a “restaurant apocalypse” has started to sweep across America. Most people have very little discretionary income to spend as a result of our cost of living crisis, and that is particularly true for our young adults. Americans under the age of 40 love to eat out, but these days most of them are experiencing financial stress, and this is having an enormous impact on the restaurant industry.
A few of our long/short models flipped short at the close Friday. KRE was one of them, which had an undercut and rally at the 50 day. Technically bullish but we will see.
Here’s an article I wrote for Scotsman Guide on regional banks. More Pain to Come for Regional Banks
OIH (oil services) was another one, which had a U&R at the 200 and 10. Also technically bullish.
I’m still way net long so adding some short exposure I still think is prudent here.
This is stupid, TIPS suck, you beat inflation by earning more than it. Inflation Can Crack Your Nest Egg. The 60/30/10 Portfolio Is the New Hedge.-Barron’s
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Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
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