Financial News vs. Noise
Last week the SPX regained 4550 and the yearly highs, and perhaps all time highs, are now on the table. We continue to think the path of least resistance is on the upside but that this rally needs to consolidate a bit here.
One of the only things meaningful to come out of Friday was this.
10 yr rates have already come down a lot in a short period of time, so you would expect a bit of a bounce. Something to watch, but not an issue at this point IMHO. This was also interesting.
VIX is now at the low of the year. It can, and might, keep going down, but I have a bit of long VIX and will try to pick up some more this week just in case.
The one thing I did do on Friday was pick up GFI (gold miner) and PAAS (silver miner). My strategy on the long side is going to be watching the miners, buying Mag 7 names on weakness, and looking for other areas coming off counter trend moves.
As far as Mag 7 goes I am in TSLA and NVDA. NVDA has to hold around this area, the 20 day EMA is 472.65, there is also a high in October of 476.09.
TSLA is moving back and forth over it’s 50 day. Technically it’s in a short sale position for me as it failed on Friday, but I think if we have continued strength in the market it will manifest here as well.
I am also back looking at the commodity names. AA looks like it could be poised for an upmove.
Fertilizers and coals all were strong on Friday, I will wait and see if they settle down a bit. I continue to like the oil names. I own APA and was going to swap it for CVX but it moved above it’s 10 day. May add CVX depending on how things look today. AR is another one that looks interesting.
I continue to like solar names. Currently in RUN. I also continue to like the lithiums. Took profits in ALB last week but will look to add back.
I continue to like China. BABA has been my stock of choice but it’s been a laggard. If it doesn’t start doing something soon I will opt for something else.
Continuing to be careful on the short side. RILY is the gift that keeps on giving.
I also continue to be short AX.
I also continue to love the idea of shorting retailers and am short M and ANF. I am also short ZION in regional banks.
Lots of earnings this week and PCE. Stocks are pricing in slowing inflation so an elevated PCE could make things interesting.
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News vs. Noise
I think this is a big deal. American Borrowers Are Getting Closer to Maxing Out Credit-card utilization and delinquency rates are on the rise-WSJ
The Stock Market Had a Wonderful Thanksgiving. Now It’s Time to Celebrate Christmas.-Barron’s
It isn’t just the end of rate hikes that bodes well for the market—it’s also the possibility that cuts will start soon. There’s a 25% chance that the Fed will cut rates by its March 2024 meeting, with greater than 50% odds that rates fall by May, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. That’s right in line with what has happened in the past: The central bank has started lowering rates nine months after its final hike on average, which would put this one at the policy meeting that ends on May 1.
I don’t. Don’t expect retail stocks to outperform the market this holiday season, analyst says-MarketWatch
This is going to have to broaden out. Tech’s Rally Isn’t Done. Smaller Stocks Are the Next to Gain.Barron’s
Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
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