Financial News vs. Noise
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I was quoted this morning in the Wall Street Journal
S&P 500, Nasdaq Extend Win Streaks Treasury yields retreat, while biotech shares fall-WSJ
“Bond yields are the tail that wags the dog,” said Matthew Tuttle, CEO of Tuttle Capital Management. “If the 10-year Treasury yield was still above 5%, I think you’d see an entirely different landscape with these earnings.”
Lower yields have helped some speculative stocks surge. Tuttle pointed to shares of gaming platform Roblox, which soared 12%, its best day since February. The company grew revenue and slowed its pace of spending.
Not much going on yesterday, still think the S&P wants to test 4400 but it’s not in a rush. The NYSE Composite Index gives you a better sense of what’s going on in the broader (non Magnificent 7) market.
Nickileaks just released this article and it looks like futures took a bit of another leg up, could be a coincidence but I don’t think so.
If this was all I was looking at I would be extremely bearish here. Same deal with small caps.
Still think the entire playbook is open, look for selective longs and selective shorts. On the long side I added CCJ yesterday as it pulled into support. Keep in mind this could easily morph into a short if support doesn’t hold.
I also added SE yesterday. Love looks like this with a large potential gap fill above.
Yesterday I talked about potential longs in energy stocks. That didn’t work out. Could be a short, but I think the optimal spot would have been late October and they are now oversold. Will be watching again today to see if XLE can climb above it’s 200 day.
Watching MOS also, it moved above it’s 10 day but then tucked back below. My thesis from last week that you may see money start to move into commodity names has not played out and I’m not going to force it.
GEO pulled back a bit and CXW was flat. Want to see these pull back a bit more.
TLT is pushing back into it’s 50 day this morning which could be a spot to buy. I do believe there is a 30 year auction today so be careful of that as sentiment could change quickly.
I did not like the way that the precious metals miners behaved yesterday and they look a bit weak so far this morning.
Bitcoin is up big this morning and MARA is up over 10% on that and earnings. Will look at some of the sympathies like RIOT and COIN but doubt they will give me a spot to enter without having to chase.
On the short side I re entered shorts on AX and TRUP when they rallied into resistance. I also saw that AMZN has decided to enter tele health. I am not a fundamental analyst but I have to figure that if AMZN enters your business that’s not a good thing so I shorted TDOC.
In some of the earnings names AFRM and DUOL could morph into a double top shorts, while IONQ could turn into a long as it pulls into support.
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News vs. Noise
A wall of debt rolling over: Here’s what’s scaring Bridgewater’s co-CIO-MarketWatch
“The after effects of offsetting deleveraging and pandemic, you’ve had a massive wealth shift from the public sector to the private sector and that’s left the government with debt to GDP up from 70% up to 120%. And the particular vulnerability of that is in the debt rollovers and the gross issuance that you’re going to see in the coming decades . You’re stuck with that debt until you pay it off and that means you have to roll it over like anybody else does,” said Prince.
The way to fix it is not more asset classes, it’s more return streams. The 60/40 stock-bond portfolio appears to be broken. Here’s how it could change.-MarketWatch
Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
At Tuttle Capital Management (“TCM”), we want to help educate investors about different ways to allocate and manage assets. TCM strives to create innovative portfolio management tools coupled with investment strategies designed to help mitigate risks and potentially enhance returns.
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