Financial News vs. Noise
Supercharged Tesla and Nvidia bets sold through single-stock ETFs-Financial Times
4100 held on the S&P but that’s about all we can say about yesterday’s bounce at this point. It feels tradeable, and if you do then 4100 is your stop (or today’s low of 4132) but I wouldn’t trust it just yet. Was definitely a risk on day as well as nothing bad happened in the Middle East. Rates were up, oil, gold, and the Dollar were all down. As usual, 6 members of the Magnificent 7 drove 45% of the performance, the only outlier being TSLA.
The NASDAQ 100 stopped before coming down to it’s 200 day.
The Dow had an undercut and rally at a bunch of different lows.
Small caps continue to suck.
As I said in yesterday’s note I am more inclined to look for longs and take profits in shorts. All of the major indices, except the small caps look somewhat bullish short term. We added back LLY today, it’s below it’s 50 day so if it stays there we will stop out.
AEHR is a name I have traded in the past, it’s real volatile as you can see from yesterday’s dump. We added this is well using 23.11 as a stop.
Silver and gold miners still look like they want to consolidate, but they didn’t get crushed in a risk on move, so that was good. TLT is buyable if it moves above it’s 10 day, would use that as a tight stop. Again, this is going to be an epic long at some point, but for now I would trade it, not own it. Been seeing a bunch of articles about how you have to buy bonds. Just remember, when bonds are your only risk reducer and stocks suck, Wall Street has to tell you to buy them. If you go to cash or Tbills and earn 5%, they don’t make fees. At some point it will make sense to add duration to your portfolio, maybe bonds have bottomed, maybe they haven’t. While they are moving around like this and with short rates as high as they are, I do not think you add duration here. This is going to be important as well….The Treasury Had Good News for Yields. But Don’t Relax Just Yet.-Barron’s
I also added OXY into oil weakness and because it held it’s 200 day.
CXW and GEO were mixed. If China stays strong then BABA can be interesting. This morning it is not.
I was right about the Yen yesterday, but my thesis besides the chart was based on Japanese intervention, which may not be forthcoming. Yen Extends Drop After BOJ Makes Modest Tweak to Yield Policy-Bloomberg
On the short side I still like ANF, but it didn’t like me yesterday. Something I have to constantly remind myself is that just because I think something should happen, doesn’t mean it will. I’ve probably lost more money chasing things that I was positive would happen than anything else. URBN moved below it’s 10 day into the close. I covered my KRE short and will look to potentially reload higher. I still think COF will be a great short, but yesterday it wasn’t.
Be very careful of this stuff. As I pointed out above with bonds, Wall Street and the media wants you to buy there stuff. If you put a gun to my head as asked me where the S&P closes December 31 I would say higher, but I could be very, very wrong about that. Until things settle down T Bills look pretty nice, and our ETF Model Portfolio still has a 33% allocation. The ‘Cash Is King’ Trade Is Ending. What Stocks to Buy Now.-Barron’s
Lots of earnings today, watch PINS for a possible double top short at the 29 area. WOLF could probably play out as a long or a short. I will try to update Twitter later on if I see anything else.
News vs. Noise
Nothing. Dow edging closer to bearish ‘death cross’ signal: What it would mean for stocks-MarketWatch
No they won’t, they will give Bitcoin exposure to investors, who like me, have no idea what a cold wallet is. The new spot-bitcoin ETFs are likely to disappoint-MarketWatch
And he’s been about as wrong as Jim Cramer lately. Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Sees Year-End Stock Rally as Unlikely-Bloomberg
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