Financial News vs. Noise
At some point this market is going to top, and when it does it will probably look a lot like Thursday looked—-intraday rally that sells off into the close. That doesn’t mean every reversal is a top. Unfortunately, we will only know the top in hindsight, so for now I am going to keep buying the dips until a top becomes obvious.
Great day for pretty much everything except TSLA. Was a lot of attention paid to the fact that the S&P broke it’s 20 day Thursday but went right back above.
@stocktalkweekly "BUT... BUT... THE 21EMA BROKE ON SPY"
Crazy move off the bottom but still in an uptrend until proven otherwise. This week we see CPI on Wednesday and the start of earnings season.
Keep an eye on VIX as it’s come off the mat and could get juiced on geopolitical tensions. I am currently short through UVXY puts but we are as close to 20 as we are to 12. I do have some out of the money VIX call spreads just in case also.
Talk about rate cut expectations now down to 2 for the year on a stronger than expected jobs number.
If the Fed is not going to cut, or not going to cut nearly as much as expected, then we need earnings to kick ass. Doubts Creep In About a Fed Rate Cut This Year-WSJ
Traders started the year predicting up to seven rate cuts. Now, many are betting on one or two—or none.
Seems like a lot of that number was due to part time jobs and unsure how much had to do with illegal immigrants.
Would expect it to be revised down next month also. Rates rose though.
I flipped from short back to long on TLT at the close. If rate cut expectations move back up then we could see TLT back at the highs, until then I think it’s a great trading vehicle to move back and forth between long and short.
TSLA had a tough day, but 160 held.
Gold miners look like AI stocks. Still long but took some profits.
Same deal with the silver miners.
GEO broke out yesterday. Was long in my longer term account, not in the trading account. Did get back in at the close.
The monthly chart shows what’s most interesting on this name. During the Trump administration it was in the 20s and went down to 5 during Biden. A Trump win in November and I think this goes back to the highs.
Same deal on CXW which I also got back into in the trading account.
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