Financial News vs. Noise
Good news was all the stuff I wanted to buy Friday afternoon I was able to buy at much better prices yesterday. Bad news is I was able to buy at much lower prices yesterday. I had a sense that whichever way the market opened Monday it might reverse. Was hoping for red to green, we got green to red. I do not think the culprit is the possibility of war in the Middle East as it seems that Iran’s and Israel’s reactions where choreographed by Washington. The problem was hot retail sales with a strong revision to February as well. As much as I believe the Fed wants to lower rates, every data point we see points to inflation being sticky and the economy continuing to grow. You could, and might, argue that you don’t want to keep rates too high for too long as that could lead to a recession, but you could also argue for no rate cuts this year. Hard to imagine equities continue to rally when yields look like this…
Unlike most of the year when every dip was bought now we are seeing every rally get sold. The S&P has also broken it’s 50 day moving average.
Would be looking at 5050 as the next support area. Small caps look the worst and IWM is now down over 2% ytd.
Market a bit red this morning, which if you are a bull you actually want. Looking through sector charts just about everything except precious metals looks like a short. However, I think the time to short was Thursday unfortunately. At this point I would be waiting for things to settle out. I did dip buying yesterday across the board in Mag 7 names but I also added some SPY and SMH puts. I believe Powell is speaking somewhere today.
Speaking of the Mag 7 I think TSLA is the most interesting at the moment. They got crushed after announcing layoffs yesterday. Watch $160 and if that doesn’t hold $150.
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Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
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