Financial News vs. Noise
So we came into the year expecting 6 rate cuts and we now may not get any at all. We are also now in an environment where strength gets sold into vs. dips being bought. Futures are green, so if you are a bull you want to see them stay that way.
The S&P 500 continues to look like a short here….
I’d be watching 5050 as the first line of support. Monday’s low was 5052 and yesterday’s close was 5051. I would not be aggressively shorting here until this clearly breaks down. Yields are going to be the most important thing….
Getting real close to the November highs before yields plunged and the market took off. Could fill the early November gap and test 4.9% but not sure why we would do that. Still have the potential of flight to safety and nobody is thinking rate hikes at the moment. TLT is green this morning and our long/short model is long. Looking at the chart there’s no real long entry here yet, but the optimal short entry was in the low 90s.
Be careful of the gold miners here. I have significantly cut exposure as it looks toppy
Energy names, which have also been strong, look toppy
Only trades I did yesterday were cutting back on gold miners and adding to BTU and TSLA.
It’s a real choppy chart but had a U&R at the 200 day. TSLA broke through the $160 level so next support is $150. Not sure about it long term but it’s due for a bounce.
Finally, watch semi’s today on this news. I don’t claim to understand AI, but I’m told it doesn’t work without ASML.
ASML Stock Dives on Orders Miss. Earnings Report Shows Chip Makers Are Cautious.-Barron’s
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