Financial News vs. Noise
Yesterday we launched the Brendan Wood TopGun ETF (BWTG). It’s an extremely unique strategy. The press release and website are below if you want to read more about it.
Brendan Wood TopGun ETF (BWTG)
At one point during the day the S&P was on the longest daily winning streak since 2004, then we had the 30 yr bond auction, which was awful. I debated buying the dip in TLT but held off. If people don’t want our 30 year bonds at these rates, that’s telling. Powell was speaking yesterday and I didn’t expect him to say anything market moving, but I think he did:
“The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is committed to achieving a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation down to 2 percent over time; we are not confident that we have achieved such a stance. We know that ongoing progress toward our 2 percent goal is not assured: Inflation has given us a few head fakes. If it becomes appropriate to tighten policy further, we will not hesitate to do so.”
He said the same thing last week also, so nothing new but sometimes you need to repeat yourself for the market to hear you. This probably didn’t help from Nickileaks:
The S&P got within 6.6 points of 4400 but it is holding it’s 50 day. I still remain leaning bullish, but the 50 day needs to hold and we can’t have bond yields spike again.
Nothing really compelling on the long side at the moment. Was long CCJ yesterday but took my profits and ran. Was also long SE and did the same. May look for spots to re enter both. Still waiting for a good spot on GEO and CXW as well. If rates do pick up steam then unlikely anything to do in precious metals, but always on watch.
On the short side I have been shorting TDOC and DOCS on the AMZN tele-health news. Covered DOCS ahead of earnings last night, thank god as it is up 20%. May look to reshort it. Shorted regional banks intraday but they have come off a lot this week so didn’t want to hold that overnight.
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News vs. Noise
30-Year Treasury Auction Breaks Bad, Sinks Stock Market-Barron’s
Primary dealers, who buy up supply not taken by investors, had to accept 24.7% of the debt on offer, more than double the 12% average for the past year.
The real action continues to be in crypto. Bitcoin Steadies and Ether Surges as BlackRock Does It Again. Where Prices Go Next.-Barron’s
Interesting take, I can’t really disagree. S&P 500’s Busted Winning Streak Was a Mirage Anyway A lousy government bond auction put an end to an epic but deceiving stock rally.-Barron’s
The bond market giveth and the bond market taketh away. The S&P 500 Index closed in the red Thursday, blowing its widely-hyped chance at a nine-day winning streak, which would have been its best run since 2004. Of course, it was always going to be a meaningless superlative about an otherwise anemic stock market fueled by trends in bonds, not expectations about profits. Fittingly then, it was ultimately spoiled by a lousy 30-year bond auction.
Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
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