Financial News vs. Noise
The exciting part of earnings season is anything can happen. Even if you are smart enough to predict what a company’s earnings are going to be, good luck predicting the market reaction. TSLA announced “bad” earnings on Tuesday….
META announced “good” earnings last night and they are down 12.5% pre market. To make matters worse…..
I have been trading the Magnificent 7 and was long TSLA yesterday and I’m long META today. The earnings gods take and the earnings gods give. As an aside this is one reason I love options, my risk is defined and contained.
The tough part about earnings season is it can obscure what’s really going on. Besides TSLA the market was pretty weak yesterday. Again, I would continue to focus on rates and semi’s.
Rates were up, continue to look at 4.7% as that breaks recent highs and November highs, which is when the stock market rally started.
SMH was basically flat yesterday, but NVDA went green to red.
I am not shorting NVDA, my counter trend model triggered a buy, but this chart looks like a short.
Will be watching $500 on SPY today as some key support…
QQQ was green yesterday, but it failed at it’s 10 day, looks shortable there…
I haven’t talked about China in a while, but it is showing a ton of relative strength here.
As are the regional banks, even in light of higher rates. I obviously don’t think this will hold and I’m currently short
While I think semi’s are the most important sector to watch, I can’t ignore what’s going on in staples…
and utilities…..
I don’t think this is bullish as it looks like fully invested PMs moving to perceived “safety”.
Haven’t been paying attention to what’s going on in transports, particularly trucking, but it’s ugly. Dow theorists would take this as a very bearish signal. I don’t, as our economy is mostly services at this point, but it is something to keep an eye on.
Transportation stocks sink, with industry ETF booking biggest drop since October-MarketWatch
Lot of earnings still on tap….
Microsoft, Alphabet, and More Report Earnings Today-Barron’s
Here's what Wall Street expects:
Alphabet: Revenue of $78.7 billion, up 13% from a year earlier, with earnings of $1.51 a share, according to FactSet. Read more.
Microsoft: Revenue of $60.9 billion with a profit of $2.82 a share. Read more.
Intel: Revenue of $12.8 billion, up 10% from a year ago, with earnings of 14 cents a share on an adjusted basis. Read more.
GDP is today….
GDP Report: What to Expect-Barron’s
The consensus call among economists surveyed by FactSet is that GDP increased at an annual rate of 2.2%.
Jamie Dimon does not expect a soft landing. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon Gives a Soft Landing Long Odds-WSJ
Finally we have PCE Friday. Anything could happen.
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