Financial News vs. Noise
The S&P earnings season is now 80% over and we don’t have any really important data until next week. Interesting thought from Mike O’Rourke on earnings….
Generally speaking, since the earnings expectations are contrived, the whole exercise highlighting the percentage of companies beating estimates offers little value. The most obvious example of that was the combination of Tesla rallying 37% in 4 trading sessions after missing its earnings estimates and Meta Platforms declining 16% in one session after trouncing its estimates
Semi’s were a bit weaker and this caught my attention…..
Nobody is right all the time, and he has been wrong a lot, still interesting though. AI and the components that go into it continue to be the major theme we are trading. We also have a 2x AI ETF slated for end of monthish.
Self defense/law and order is another big theme I am playing. My ETF for that is currently being censored so not sure yet when it comes out. GEO got crushed yesterday. Technically it looks like a short here. I run two models for it and one was long yesterday. It triggered a sell, but my calls are worth so little it doesn’t matter. Still love the thesis here.
AXON is another one. Held the 50 day though and triggered some potential buys on a basket model I run.
Argentina is another big theme we have been trading. Been taking some profits but nice to see Elon is noticing…
I also like trading the fertilizers, no big theme here except coming into the year I though the “stuff” stocks would outperform. MOS and CF both triggered U&R’s yesterday.
China is another theme we are trading, trading is the key word also. I am not a long term buy and holder, but no problem with me if you are. Certain areas are less conducive to that and IMHO are trades (Long and short if you are so inclined like I am with China). Too much risk in China to buy and hold.
Chinese Stocks Are Bouncing Back. Why You Should Wait.-Barron’s
From Druckenmiller on China yesterday…..
We exited China in 2018. We haven’t made a single trade in security there other than their currency once in a while, I won’t say which way. I will never invest in China as long as the current leader is there. The reason I’ll never say never is if they had a change in leadership, I’d at least consider the situation. But to me -- I didn’t invest in Russia, and I’m not investing in China. There’s so many exciting things going on in the United States, in Argentina, and Japan, why in the world would I ever want to put money in China? And frankly as an American, outside of my investment day job, I feel very good about that decision.
Kashkari spoke yesterday, nice of Sandman to explain things to him….
This guy has called 50 of the last 2 bear markets, not sure why he is even getting mentioned at this point. Key to getting famous in finance is stake out an extreme and stick there. Why he may be wrong is that he just says this stuff for popularity at this point.
‘Rich Dad Poor Dad’ author offers grim forecast for stocks. This chart shows why he may be wrong.-MarketWatch
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Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
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