Financial News vs. Noise
If you have worked with a crappy broker before you have heard something along the lines of how you only take a loss if you sell, until then it’s on paper so it doesn’t count. That is of course bulls%^&t. However, I do think it works the other way, your gains don’t count until you take them. I have a quantitative rule on gains, if the market opens and my first thought is “holy crap” I start to sell. Yesterday was one of those days. There was a massive speculative bubble for about the first 30 minutes or so before the markets started a move from green to red. So I took off a lot, but not all, of my longs and added a bit to my shorts, which were all rallying massively.
Today is PCE, which is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. A surprise either way could be market moving.
One area I did add to was oil, the commodity as the drillers got crushed. It was nicely green yesterday and so far so good this morning. USO had a U&R at it’s 200 day and then yesterday moved above the 10 and 20.
TSLA is another stock I am long. It’s a name that inspires a lot of emotion and has it’s perma bulls and perma bears. Both sides get slaughtered from time to time, while the people who trade it make money. As you know I have ETFs that play both sides so I don’t care which way it goes as long as it moves. Last night in case you missed it, Elon told all the advertisers leaving Twitter, specifically Bob Iger, to go F themselves. Seeing a lot of negative commentary on Twitter, but personally I love it and the stock is currently green this morning. If it does go down my stop is one of the moving averages-50, 10, or 20. I would then re evaluate at the 200.
Yesterday China banned negative research reports. We basically have that here, just not so blatant. I have some BABA calls that need a minor miracle to be in the money but I don’t like the set up here and there is nothing else I really like in China at the moment.
CCJ is back on the watchlist today. It took off this month, but is now starting to selloff into support. Technically it’s a short here on a break of the 10 day, but more interested in the 20 day.
Nothing really changed on strategy, the only areas not extended are the solars and the oils, so will be watching those. Would love to get more precious metals exposure, but not up here. Would also love to go long the Yen, but not up here. Some of the Mag 7 stocks are looking toppy as the rally starts to broaden a bit. Would not short them unless we see overall market weakness, and would look to go long if they sell off into some support areas. I would also love for something to play out on volatility, I currently have short dated UVXY puts and longer VIX call spreads. Would love to see a pop in volatility so I can take profits on the calls and buy more puts. We will see.
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News vs. Noise
Again, at some point this is going to matter and things could get ugly if we do indeed get higher for longer. Fed rate-cut hopes are fueling an ‘everything rally’ on Wall Street-MarketWatch
Yes. PCE inflation report could show a cooling down. Does that mean the Fed is done raising rates?-MarketWatch
Don’t forget we have cybertruck today. Tesla Stock Will Go Down After the Cybertruck Launch. And Ford and GM? Up, Probably.-Barron’s
Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
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