Financial News vs. Noise
Rates dropped sharply yesterday and the main indices were all green, but beneath the surface there was still a lot of yuck. Awful day for advance/decline…
and the % of stocks above their 20 day moving average took a dump again.
Another Magnificent 7 day, with all 7 in the green. How long can these stocks go up and everything else isn’t doing much? Time will tell. Doubtful we get answers this week, but it all counts.
Software also continued to move up.
Johnathan Krinsky at BTIG had an interesting note yesterday, Breakdown in Restaurants an Ominous Sign for the Consumer…
A few months ago in mid-March we highlighted the Restaurant sector as being vulnerable. The Russell 3k Restaurant Index is down ~6% from that point, while SPX is ~6% higher. The group is down nearly 2% today, one of its worst days of the year and breaking below its May lows to levels last seen in November. Gasoline futures are hitting multi-month highs today and not helping things.
Like many consumer related parts of the market, we are reaching a point where these groups no longer look like opportunities for catch-up, and rather look like an ominous sign for a late cycle market. It has been nearly a year since the Fed last raised rates, long rates peaked eight-months ago, and yet areas like restaurants (outside of some idiosyncratic names) are continuing to move lower.
If it were just restaurants, we could perhaps look past it. But we can add Homebuilders, Industrials, Materials, Equal-Weight Discretionary, Boats & RVs, Casinos, etc.
For now money continues to stay in the market, and is providing fuel for the crowded mega-cap leaders, which in turn suppresses volatility and keeps indices grinding higher. That doesn't mean it's 'healthy'.
To be clear, the RELATIVE trend of restaurants has been moving lower for over a year, so that's not a signal by itself. The recent breakdown in ABSOLUTE terms, however, seems to confirm there are clearly some issues with this group, and likely the consumer at large.
We are also seeing cracks by some of the clear winners in the group including Chipotle (CMG, Buy, PT $67; Analyst - Peter Saleh) and Domino's Pizza (DPZ, Buy, PT $580; Analyst - Peter Saleh). Several names do seem to still be impervious, however, including Cava Group (Not Rated), and Wingstop (WING, Neutral).
Finally on the sentiment side, the latest AAII Stock Allocation survey came out at 70.4, the highest reading since Dec. '21. To be fair it was above 70 from April '21 - Dec. '21, so it's not always imminent contrarian signal. With that said, prior to that cycle it exceeded 70 for the first time in Dec. '17, which was right before 'volmageddon'. Prior to 2017 it had not exceeded 70 since the summer of 2000.
Subscribe to our other newsletters
Laffer Tengler Research Bulletin
Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
At Tuttle Capital Management (“TCM”), we want to help educate investors about different ways to allocate and manage assets. TCM strives to create innovative portfolio management tools coupled with investment strategies designed to help mitigate risks and potentially enhance returns.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day. The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades.
Tuttle Capital Management is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investor’s financial situation.
© 2024 Tuttle Capital Management LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved.
