Financial News vs. Noise
Hope everyone had a happy holiday. Not much to read into Friday’s action, figure anyone around left early, which is when the bears tried to take control and sell the market off. PCE came in a bit cool which gave the market an early boost and volatility sold off like clockwork. The NAAIM Exposure index is near the year highs at 97.32, it was in the 40’s around the same time last year.
For those not aware this index represents the average exposure to equities from the members of the National Association of Active Investment Managers. The American Association of Individual Investors Bull Index shows the same thing and it is now at the high of the year. This represents what percent of members are bullish over the next 6 months.
Taken in a vacuum sentiment measures don’t tell you much beyond what you already know, institutional and individual investors are bullish. Just be aware that the consensus is usually wrong, especially around the extremes. As a shorter term investors I have no desire to short this market at the moment, but I think at some point during the first quarter I might.
Strategy remains the same for now, buy Magnificent 7 on dips and look to buy commodity names. Bought AAPL on Friday, not much of a dip but enough to get me interested. Also took some profits on BTU and CF, will look for dips to get back in. Also took some profits on UVXY puts, will hope to get another volatility spike to fade. Have to figure everyone is on VC this week, but sometimes we still can get some juicy moves.
I do think we continue to run into year end, but this market feels extended and really does need to consolidate some of these gains. ‘Santa Claus’ rally time for stock market? Why investors should dial back their expectations for this seasonal year-end gift.-MarketWatch
Something to watch, I do not think the consumer is in nearly as good shape as the numbers suggest. Nike’s Poor Outlook Signals Big Problem for Sneakers and Consumers-Barron’s
Nike said it was seeing more caution from consumers, particularly in markets such as Europe and China.
Value investing was great when you could outwork and outwork others and uncover ideas before anyone else. Today, we all have access to the same information. Value will outperform from time to time, and it very well may next year, but it’s not the strategy that it was. Berkshire Hathaway Stock Is Behind the Market in 2023 and Over the Past 10 Years-Barron’s
Subscribe to our other newsletters
Laffer Tengler Research Bulletin
Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
At Tuttle Capital Management (“TCM”), we want to help educate investors about different ways to allocate and manage assets. TCM strives to create innovative portfolio management tools coupled with investment strategies designed to help mitigate risks and potentially enhance returns.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day. The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades.
Tuttle Capital Management is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investor’s financial situation.
© 2023 Tuttle Capital Management LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved.
