Financial News vs. Noise
Yesterday the market rallied on the back of a much better than expected 20 year bond auction. I cannot remember the last time a bond auction mattered, but now they do. Then we had the OpenAI drama. Today we have FOMC minutes and NVDA earnings after the close.
The SPX tested 4500 and failed, would assume it will keep trying. I was expecting some weakness before we get another leg up, my best guess is NVDA earnings will decide if that’s right or not. The NDX is now almost back to where it was when the Fed pivoted on inflation. Quite amazing with interest rates where they are. IWM is trying to get over it’s 200 day and is still the laggard.
Rates continue to be the tail that wags the dog. At some point you are going to start wanting to look for a reversal, but right now this is a freight train that’s hard to get in front of. The bond auction yesterday shows how much sentiment has flipped since the 30 yr one.
In currencies I was watching the Yen, then I stopped watching the Yen and it had a major rally. Now I’m watching the Euro for a possible short.
Gold and silver miners continue to be my top watch. With rates and the Dollar coming down they should be doing better. The fact they are not is somewhat telling.
China names could have some more room to go. We still own BABA and would look to add if it can break above 77.77 (May low)
Solar’s still look buyable. We bought RUN yesterday when it moved above it’s 50 day.
I still like the oil names down here. Oil was up pretty big but they didn’t budge. I own CVX and am looking at APA.
AA was another name we added yesterday when it peaked above it’s 50 day.
Watching the Airlines as they attempt to come off bottoms.
We continue to own ALB in lithium:
TSLA looks interesting here if it can move back above it’s 50 day.
On the short side the regional banks look to be setting up again. My top watch today will be TFC.
In REITs going to be watching AMT.
Would also love to find a spot to short retail names, M is my top watch today.
Subscribe to our other newsletters
Laffer Tengler Research Bulletin
News vs. Noise
This is true, but still way higher than when they were before the Fed pivoted. S&P 500 exits correction territory. Thank retreating bond yields.-MarketWatch
Not expecting much from this but you never know. Fed Minutes May Show Its Priorities as It Pauses Rates-Barron’s
And despite the tough talk, most investors believe the central bank is poised to hold interest rates steady for the foreseeable future. Investors on Monday were pricing in a 0% chance of a hike at the December meeting and only 2.1% chance in January, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
At Tuttle Capital Management (“TCM”), we want to help educate investors about different ways to allocate and manage assets. TCM strives to create innovative portfolio management tools coupled with investment strategies designed to help mitigate risks and potentially enhance returns.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day. The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades.
Tuttle Capital Management is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investor’s financial situation.
© 2023 Tuttle Capital Management LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved.
