Financial News vs. Noise
Every time the market has a big move before a number we joke that someone got a look at the data early. Yesterday the market went red to green pretty quickly near the close sparking people to joke about CPI being leaked. Maybe it was…
JPMorgan, BlackRock Among BLS Economist’s CPI ‘Super Users’-Bloomberg
An economist from the Bureau of Labor Statistics corresponded on data related to a key US inflation gauge with major Wall Street firms like JPMorgan Chase & Co. and BlackRock Inc., raising questions about equitable access to economic information.
Then there’s this….
Bond Trader Places Record Futures Bet on Eve of Inflation Data-Bloomberg
The reason given for the red to green move at the end of the day were comments from Fed Head Bostic which could be interpreted to mean the Fed is going to cave on the 2% inflation target and focus on economic growth. He didn’t really say anything but the implication seemed to be pretty clear.
Perhaps commodities reflect that traders are betting the Fed will move the inflation goalposts and focus on growth instead. Commodities Rally Reflects a Better Economy, but Also Poses Inflation Risks-WSJ
Intel is a name that could be interesting. They announced a new chip that could compete with NVDA. Stock didn’t really pop on the news but a move back above the 200 day could be buyable.
Speaking of NVDA looks real double toppy, would be hesitant to bet against it but could go short using the 10 or 20 as a stop. Our counter trend model got back long on Monday.
In a roll reversal, TSLA looks pretty good here. Bounced right where it needed to bounce.
This is concerning though…
Tesla overtakes Coinbase as top holding of Cathie Wood’s flagship ETF-MarketWatch
All kidding aside though, ARKK has pretty much flatlined all year. Good inflation news today could trigger some sort of breakout on these names.
This is something I talked about the other day. I have UVXY puts but I do have a small VIX spread trade just in case. If the Fed is moving the goal posts I don’t see a reason to worry about VIX. However war, higher inflation, crap earnings, etc, could change the equation. When I do buy VIX I like to do it on extreme weakness, so would be more inclined around 13.
Stock-market rally has likely reached a ‘tipping point’ following spike in Wall Street’s ‘fear gauge’-MarketWatch
Subscribe to our other newsletters
Laffer Tengler Research Bulletin
Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
At Tuttle Capital Management (“TCM”), we want to help educate investors about different ways to allocate and manage assets. TCM strives to create innovative portfolio management tools coupled with investment strategies designed to help mitigate risks and potentially enhance returns.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day. The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades.
Tuttle Capital Management is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investor’s financial situation.
© 2023 Tuttle Capital Management LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved.
