Financial News vs. Noise
With all the earnings this week and PCE this morning wasn’t expecting GDP to be that meaningful, I was wrong. Growth came in much less than expected and inflation came in higher. So not only are we down from 6 rate cuts this year to maybe none..
We are now staring at the prospect of stagflation instead of a soft landing. So the same guys that thought inflation was transitory may have mucked it up again. In that light, this is something to keep an eye on…
The group of Trump allies argues that he should be consulted on interest-rate decisions, and the draft document recommends subjecting Fed regulations to White House review and more forcefully using the Treasury Department as a check on the central bank. The group also contends that Trump, if he returns to the White House, would have the authority to oust Jerome Powell as Fed chair before his four-year term ends in 2026, the people familiar with the matter said, though Powell would likely remain on the Fed’s board of governors.
Meanwhile, earnings season is full steam and it looked like META and GDP would take the market down yesterday, until it didn’t. With the S&P firmly below the 50 day and recent rips getting sold, we have seen a change in character for this market. That’s what makes yesterday so interesting as you would have expected it to get very ugly. Interest rates popped over 4.7%, which is the number I was watching…
But semi’s came back…
The thinking was that METAs plans for increased capex are bad for them, but great for NVDA and other chip makers. Last night we had GOOGL and MSFT which look to be fueling the opposite move this morning. Could their capex plans also boost semi’s? NVDA green again this morning. PCE could change everything, a cool number and we are back to expecting cuts. I’d still be cautious here. Interesting, even though META declined over 10% yesterday it’s still the name I have made the most money trading this year. A lot of these stocks have had some really powerful runs. Next up, AMZN…
Opinion: As Alphabet follows Meta with a dividend, the pressure is now on Amazon-MarketWatch
Alphabet Inc.’s surprise issuance of its first dividend is now putting the pressure on Amazon.com Inc. to follow suit, as it is now the last of the Big Tech companies that does not pay its shareholders a dividend.
I think buying something just because it pays a dividend is stupid, but people do it.
Gold miners spiked yesterday. I have to think it’s based on potential stagflation
Some of the other metals look interesting as well. I continue to be long FCX..
I’m also long NUE, which held it’s 200 day. The steels have been the weakest metal.
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