Financial News vs. Noise
Tuttle partners with Brendan Wood on ‘TopGun’ US equity ETF-ETF Strategy
About what you would expect ahead of CPI this morning, a whole lot of nothing. Our shorts ended up playing out very well as RILY looks like it’s circling the drain and brining AX with it. I also added back TRUP. Barring any surprises from CPI today and PPI tomorrow I still think the path of least resistance is up. We also added equity exposure to our ETF Model Portfolio yesterday. I think you should always have some shorts, but at this point they should be limited to special situations and opportunities that pop up from sector rotations.
On the long side we got back into GEO and CXW on weakness. I am speaking on a panel at the ETF Forum on Thursday about opportunities for 2024 and I think the whole self defense, security theme is going to be my number one opportunity. I think this weight loss drug thing could have legs, but it could also be played out. Lithium is has an interesting bull argument as well, but I think these security stocks are going to be interesting.
GLD had an undercut and rally at it’s 200 day so we picked that up on the long side as well. Silver and all the miners continue to look pretty ugly, but they stay on watch because the time to buy them is when nobody else wants them.
I added ENPH yesterday as it had a U&R at it’s 10 day and has a bunch of gaps on the upside to fill if it ever gets going.
I also added MOS. So far I have been wrong about the commodity stock theme, but fertilizers have been strong.
Oil stocks may end up being my top watch today, assuming something else doesn’t grab my attention. All the biggies look buyable but I’ll probably be looking at OXY because of Warren Buffett.
KTOS and CCJ at two stocks that I have been in that have run away from me a bit. Will be looking for spots to buy back into both, but not going to chase.
On the short side nothing interests me at the moment, that could change if CPI comes in hot. I took profits on AX and RILY but still have runners and could add back positions on any pops.
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News vs. Noise
Interesting. I always though the “market timing” studies were disingenuous because they never included missing the worst days. Of course the whole idea is stupid, you can’t “time the market” in the traditional sense. Today could be one of the best, or worst days of the year depending on CPI, but I have no idea which because it’s a binary event that I cannot predict. This ignores what investors should be trying to do, which is adjust portfolios based on potential risk and return. In essence treat the market like you would poker or blackjack. You are not going to double down on a 15 when the dealer has a king. You are also going to handle pocket aces differently than you are going to handle a 2/7 unsuited. Stock traders take note: There’s hope for market timing, after all -MarketWatch
Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
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