Financial News vs. Noise
Kind of thought I would wake up to a sea of red this morning after yesterday’s close. So far so good as markets are only slightly down. Yesterday I was somewhat spooked by the BOJ comments regarding wanting to raise rates, but holding off because of the market being shaky. That didn’t seem like something markets should be rallying on, and the rally fizzled. Central Banks Get Sand Kicked in Their Face Again Markets are pretty good at bullying monetary authorities, and now the BOJ has fallen into a pattern that started after Paul Volcker.-Bloomberg
Intense pressure came upon the BOJ to relent and allow the yen to weaken again. Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida, speaking at a conference Wednesday, said almost exactly what the markets wanted to hear.
Initial jobless claims are today and could be somewhat important.
One issue that could eventually come to a head is market expectations of what the Fed is going to do vs. what they are actually going to do. The market is currently pricing in 45bps in September and 111bps for the year. That works if the Fed decides to do 50 in September, which is far from certain. CPI is next week and Jackson Hole is in 2 weeks, should get some more clarity from those events.
This is bullish. Retail investors haven’t been this pessimistic in nine months, AAII survey finds-MarketWatch
This is not bullish. Nvidia’s stock offers ‘tremendous opportunity’ after selloff, this analyst says-MarketWatch
A couple of important levels—-$100 and 10 day moving average ($107.78). The lows it’s made this week could be important as well, to the upside and the downside.
If you are a bull then a red to green move today would be a great counter to what we saw yesterday.
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