Financial News vs. Noise
Yesterday’s Episode of The Watchlist
So slightly better than expected jobless claims mean we are no longer looking at a recession, the Fed is no longer behind the curve, we no longer need an emergency rate cut, and everything is ok with Japan? Not sure I buy that, but the market does, at least for the moment. Again, most of what we do is systematic so we are going to be fading this for the most part. Sold a lot into yesterday’s move and have more to sell today. Our short watchlist, which had been empty for the past couple of days is full again. I would suspect that we will be adding some things in our trend following models, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it was in the semi’s, assuming that strength continues. So far this morning that’s where I am seeing the most strength.
SMH had an undercut and rally the other day at the 200 day. For all the talk about rotations, this market doesn’t go anywhere without the semi’s.
Yesterday we talked about $100 on NVDA. At the moment in the pre market it is over $107. This doesn’t hurt. Nvidia Stock Gains. What TSMC’s Sales Mean for the Chip Maker.-Barron's
However, Nvidia could also be getting an extra boost from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing TSM6.13%, which reported a 45% rise in its July sales from the same month last year. That was an even bigger year-over-year rise for the contract chip maker than the previous month’s figure, which helped trigger a rally in chip stocks as investors assess the strong demand for artificial-intelligence hardware.
Chart still looks like a downturn though.
VIX has settled down, but it’s still above 20.
Rates have been coming up, getting close to 4% again on the 10 year.
Next week is CPI, PPI, and retail sales, which all should be important.
Remember Trump Trades? They’re So Three Weeks Ago-Bloomberg. Remember, I watch different names than most journalists who talk about the “Trump Trade”. DJT is obvious, but my favorites are GEO, CXW, AXON, and SWBI. Do see some nice set ups….
U&R at the 200 day.
Setting up for a U&R at the 200 day.
Would wait for this to settle down.
Lot more risk to these names with her leading in the polls and about to get a boost from the convention.
Saw this yesterday. If covered call ETFs are being sold as a goldilocks investment then that’s misleading. You get a bit of downside protection from the option premium, but in a 10%ish move down that’s just a drop in the bucket. What they really do is serve as a portfolio diversifier by giving you something that excels in a flat market. In a flat market the underlying doesn’t move much, so you keep your entire premium with no impact to principal.
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Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
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