Financial News vs. Noise
We are excited to announce that TSPY launches today. More information can be found HERE (The website should be up later this morning)
CPI came in pretty much exactly where it needed to be for the bulls. 5 up days in a row for the market after the so called “Black Swan” event last week. SPY has now peaked back above the 50 day.
Everything we look at shows the market is overbought and we would love to see a pullback to buy into, but the market doesn’t seem to want to give it to us. Today we have retail sales, after that the next key event is Jackson Hole and then a whole lot of nothing market moving for a while.
Investors still aren’t sure how big that cut will be, and more data on inflation and the labor market are due before the next Fed meeting. Traders in interest-rate futures were placing a 65% chance of a quarter-point cut next month, up from 47% Tuesday, according to CME data. Bets for a bigger half-point cut fell.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will use his Jackson Hole speech next week to set the table for a September interest rate cut, while the actual size of the move will be determined by the August jobs data that comes a week later, economists said.
The so called rotation into smaller stocks seems to be pretty much dead as small caps were down yesterday and IWM looks like a short at the 50 day.
The Dow does look impressive though, and also overbought.
Magnificent 7 was mixed yesterday. TSLA took a hit and looks like it could go either way depending on how it handles the 200 day.
AMZN sitting in the same type of spot.
Would like to see NVDA break the 50 day.
Remember, 13Fs are just a snapshot in time. Druckenmiller, Soros, Tepper among investors selling Nvidia in second quarter as tech stocks slumped-MarketWatch They may have sold in the second quarter, but someone is buying now.
MSFT is my favorite chart.
