Financial News vs. Noise

The most important jobs number ever is this morning, until next month's number. Two Fed Heads speak after, Williams and Waller, so that ought to be important as well. We know the Fed is going to cut rates, we just don't know how much. We also don't know how the market will take 25bps or 50bps. Will they be disappointed in only 25? Or, if we get 50 does that signal that the Fed knows something we don't? Coming into the number you would expect the market to be flat. That's the cool thing about the market, it doesn't always do what you would expect so it's getting mauled this morning on growth fears. There's a story on Bloomberg this morning suggesting the print will disappoint this morning.

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I thought this tweet was brilliant.

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This is so true. Every year there are periods where making money is drop dead easy, then you have periods where it's a chore. Early in the year was one of those times, right now isn't. My personal P&L peaked in mid July and since then it just moves in a range. Every time it gets back near the peak it comes back down. I talk a lot about the similarities between poker and trading. In poker the goal is to stay solvent during runs where you just don't have the odds in your favor and then press it when you do. Same thing here. I am model driven and am following my models, but my position size is less than normal. The goal right now is to stay as close to the flat line as possible, which I am personally doing being down a bit over .75% since the peak. Once we get into a better market, then the position sizing goes back up. Being cognizant of this is I think one of the best things you can learn in markets. Pressing trades right now is like going all in with a 3/7 unsuited.

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SPY is sitting right on it's 50 day. Assuming this weakness holds it will open below.

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QQQs are in no man's land, but there is some support at 455.

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Small caps look like a short, unless they can move back above the 50 day.

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Dow looks like a short also.

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So at the moment all the indices look like better shorts than longs. It's all going to come down to the number though.

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Rates are supportive of stocks here. Was long TLT for most of this move but my model flipped short Wednesday at the close. So far looking a bit early but 3.7% could be support.

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VIX is back above 20 this morning. Got short volatility (through VIX ETP puts) on the pop on Tuesday and was feeling pretty good about myself yesterday. Not so much this morning.

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This is something I have been talking about. AI is going to need energy, lots of it.

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Get Ready for the New Nuclear Age. Its Revival Could Solve America’s Electricity Problems.-Barron's

The tide is turning. Six reactors slated to close from 2021 to 2025 have been saved through state and federal action. And three reactors that were closed and decommissioned may be restarted, which has never happened before. Gates’ nuclear company, TerraPower, is preparing the site of a retired coal plant in Wyoming for a new reactor with more than $2 billion in government financing, and two Altman-backed companies are testing nuclear technologies. The Biden administration has announced a goal to triple the nation’s nuclear capacity by 2050.

I currently trade UUUU and hold SMR and NNE longer term.

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More bad news for ASML seemingly.....

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Netherlands Expands Export Control Rules for Some ASML Equipment-WSJ

The move comes as Washington and its allies seek to curb China’s access to advanced semiconductors that could be used for military applications. ASML makes highly complex machines that chip makers need to produce increasingly sophisticated semiconductors to power artificial-intelligence features in smartphones, laptops, electric vehicles and data centers.

I think if you get an undercut and rally at the August low that could be a great long entry spot.

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