Our ETFs

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ETF Model Portfolios

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Your Wealth Comes First Podcast

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Pleased to announce that options are now trading  on MSTU and MSTZ

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Going to be participating in the Market Minds Summit on 9/25 at 2:45PM EST. I still think I have some complimentary tickets left so hit me up if you want one.

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marketmindssummit.com 

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Kind of a nothing day considering it was triple witching on Friday but to be expected to see the market digest gains from the FOMC. SPY is at the highs....

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QQQs are not.....

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Dow is at highs...

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IWM is getting there.....

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Hearing some people say that this signals a great rotation out of tech and into a more broadly based rally. I would be careful with that. Remember with small caps that the Russell 2000 is a crap index. Remember also that this leg of the rally has been driven by AI and AI tangential. The AI names can't go up in a straight line, so from time to time money has to rotate. I still believe the average consumer is stretched to the breaking point, if they haven't broken already. Was talking about this last week with a very smart woman and we were wondering what happens to the economy and the markets if the rich are doing just as well as ever, but the non-rich are devastated? Don't know the answer to that, but assume we will find out. Until then I am sticking with my main themes:

1. AI and AI related

2. Weight Loss

3. Self Defense

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Contrary to Media Myth, U.S. Urban Crime Rates Are Up-WSJ

The results aren’t pretty. According to the NCVS, the urban violent-crime rate increased 40% from 2019 to 2023. Excluding simple assault, the urban violent-crime rate rose 54% over that span. From 2022 to 2023, the urban violent-crime rate didn’t change to a statistically significant degree, so these higher crime rates appear to be the new norm in America’s cities.

4. Argentina (I got out of the Argentine names, probably early and kind of kicking myself. Will look for a spot to get back in)

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From Jefferies.....

Early last week, we had argued that we need three volatility events to be out of the way for investors to be more comfortable with risky assets. The first two (Fed and BoJ) passed in a supportive manner. For risky assets investors, we now need the next payroll report to indicate that the economy and employment picture is still robust. Positioning is still light and if the third event risk passes without any concerns, we should get a green light for risky assets over the coming weeks.

Speaking of AI related, the nuclear names went nuclear on Friday. I've been looking for a dip to get into CEG. Sometimes waiting for a dip works out great, other times you never get it. I can take solace in the fact that I am in OKLO, NNE, and SMR.

These are all names that we have been talking about on The Watchlist.

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Opinion: Tech giants desperate to power AI data centers are turning to nuclear disaster sites — despite the risks-MarketWatch

“Powering industries critical to our nation’s global economic and technological competitiveness, including data centers, requires an abundance of energy that is carbon-free and reliable every hour of every day, and nuclear plants are the only energy sources that can consistently deliver on that promise,” said Joe Dominguez, president and chief executive of Constellation, in a statement.

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Uranium ETFs rally amid plans to revive nuclear reactor in Microsoft agreement-MarketWatch

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World’s biggest banks pledge support for nuclear power-FT

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Behind Microsoft’s AI Power Deal-WSJ

Artificial intelligence is increasing demand for power while baseload plants that provide power around the clock shut down. New data centers are on hold because the grid can’t support AI systems with intermittent wind and solar. Hence, the Microsoft deal.

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Speaking of AI power generation, could natural gas be the next area of growth? According to Jefferies.....

While we believe the continued data center roll out and AI proliferation will be supportive for natural gas consumption in the US, key questions remain in realizing these forecasts. In order for gas to be utilized, data centers must be built in areas where there is strong gas availability (e.g. Northeast) and then developers must choose whether to connect the facility to the grid or use distributed onsite natural gas generators. Furthermore, on the supply side, questions remain on planned coal / gas plant retirements, renewables build out, technology company environmental targets, and government policies. While on the demand side, potential computing efficiency gains, chip improvements, and other prospective technological developments are unknown variables.

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In terms of great minds thinking alike, Eliant Capital had a note out this weekend on the natural gas names.

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‍NVDA consolidating around the 50 day, looking like it wants to set up for another leg up....

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I also like ASML down here...

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Sorry, the Fed Can’t Save Us From a Bear Market-WSJ

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Maybe, maybe not. But, it shouldn't matter. You need to be agnostic between long and short, you should incorporate hedges into your portfolio, and you need to spend a lot of time on trade construction. There are ways to construct your long trades so that in the words of the immortal Larry Connors---"Heads you win a lot, Tails you don't lose at all or you lose a little" (Think I may have misquoted you a bit, sorry Larry, but the gist is accurate).

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Why you should ignore things like "stocks go down in September"....

Stocks poised for first September gain in 5 years. Why more good times could lie ahead.-MarketWatch

September has historically been the worst month for U.S. stocks — but not this year

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