Financial News vs. Noise

As I said on Friday the last day of the year is a crap shoot. For now I think the small selloff created a bit of a buying opportunity. I took the opportunity to add three names in areas I want to be active in this year:

Commodities (CF)

Uranium (CCJ)

Uranium Is Finally Running Hot, and Miners Can’t Keep Up-WSJ

Cameco, one of the world’s biggest producers, recently said it may need to buy more uranium before the end of this year to meet obligations to customers after suffering setbacks at key mines.

Migrant/Crime (GEO)

Areas I was eyeing, but didn’t pull the trigger where TSLA and a bunch of China names (BIDU, BABA, and XPEV). My thesis at the moment, and understand this can and probably will change, is:

1. Buy Mag 7 names on weakness but don’t expect a repeat of 2023. If the market is up then the structural advantages these names have makes them compelling as they make up such a large part of the major indices.

2. Buy commodities on weakness

3. Buy emerging markets on weakness, probably including China but be extra careful.

Another area I will be watching is bonds, specifically TLT. I think the market is overestimating rate cuts and this chart looks like what Gil Morales would call a punchbowl of death. Had an interesting dip mid day on Friday that I probably would have shorted had it not been last day of year with everyone on VC.

Seeing a bunch of articles about how the 60/40 portfolio is back so I have to figure it isn’t.

Five Investors on How to Navigate the Bond Market in 2024 A big year-end rally faces challenges including inflation and the deficit-WSJ

Then there’s everything that underperformed last year. If this bull run continues figure those are the areas money goes.

A record share of S&P 500 stocks underperformed the index in 2023 as ‘weirdest bull market in decades’ marches on-MarketWatch

Dogs of the S&P 500 perhaps? Here are the 20 worst-performing stocks among the S&P 500 in 2023-MarketWatch

The biggest losers of the year included Pfizer, Dollar General, Enphase Energy and Walgreens

Also for anyone who still harbors the illusion that people can predict what the market is going to do over a year:

Just saw a stat that 18 of the past 26 first sessions of the year on the NASDAQ where positive. QQQ slightly in the red at the moment so we will see. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is back above $45k on hopes that the spot ETF will get approved. Gold is also starting the year off strong. Being a contrarian I hate to see articles like this.

Investors Shouldn’t Ignore Gold’s 2023 Rally. Why 2024 Could Bring More Gains.-Barron’s

China is weak again this morning, so that may end up being my top watchlist item today.

Cheap China Stocks Lure Investors Who See 60% Slump as Rock Bottom Almost a third of survey respondents say they will increase their China investments over the next 12 months-Bloomberg

Subscribe to our other newsletters

Cramer Tracker

ETF Model Portfolio Update

Laffer Tengler Research Bulletin

SPAC Market Update

Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.

At Tuttle Capital Management (“TCM”), we want to help educate investors about different ways to allocate and manage assets. TCM strives to create innovative portfolio management tools coupled with investment strategies designed to help mitigate risks and potentially enhance returns.

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day.  The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades. 

Tuttle Capital Management is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investor’s financial situation. 


© 2023 Tuttle Capital Management LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved.