Financial News vs. Noise
Been pretty busy the past couple of days, great article by Benzinga summarizing it all:
Another crappy day in the market, which makes today’s jobs number extra important. Something else to keep an eye on is the re-acceleration of inflation in France in Germany. According to Mike O’Rourke:
The concern is that low hanging fruit in the inflation fight has been harvested.
Expectations of cuts by the ECB shifted downwards and yields here rose again, with the 10 year moving above 4% at it’s high.
I have been bullish, and will continue to be until 8:30AM. I do think that there is a disconnect between what the market expects and what the Fed is thinking, but I have felt it will take a bit for that to manifest. However, if the market shifts expectations now then all bets are off and we could retrace a good chunk of this move. Levels now start getting important again. We already cut through the 10 day, yesterday the 20 day. The market also couldn’t find support at 4700. 4600 is the next logical downside level if we get a hot number this morning.
This was also interesting, its not just the bond guys getting worried. I pointed out the NAAIM index a few days ago as you saw a bullish extreme from institutional investors. They are still bullish, but this is quite a drop in a short period of time.
Yesterday I did add a bit of exposure in the metals-AA and FCX, and bought some dips in China and Emerging Markets. Besides that days like this are read and react, which is what I like about this number being an hour before open. If I do look for shorts my sense is it would be in the financial space where I am already short COF. Also would look at some of these tech charts that look like textbook short set ups. Precious metals will also be top of list one way or the other as they move a lot based on expectations of Fed policy. I am a huge believer in buying dips, but I am also cognizant that sometimes dips turn into trend changes, so be ready for anything.
Subscribe to our other newsletters
Laffer Tengler Research Bulletin
Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
At Tuttle Capital Management (“TCM”), we want to help educate investors about different ways to allocate and manage assets. TCM strives to create innovative portfolio management tools coupled with investment strategies designed to help mitigate risks and potentially enhance returns.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day. The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades.
Tuttle Capital Management is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investor’s financial situation.
© 2023 Tuttle Capital Management LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved.
