Financial News vs. Noise
We are ringing the closing bell for TGLR on the CBOE on Thursday in Chicago. If anyone is around and wants to come please let me know.
Eventful end to the week, first we had a cooler than expected PCE and then this from Fed Head Waller:
“Today, bills are less than 5% of our Treasury holdings and less than 3% of our total securities holdings. Moving toward more Treasury bills would shift the maturity structure more toward our policy rate—the overnight federal funds rate—and allow our income and expenses to rise and fall together as the FOMC increases and cuts the target range.”
If the Fed ends up buying the short end and selling the long end it could lower short term rates and steepen the curve. Looking through the areas that don’t look too extended I like Brazil, which is one of the themes we have been focusing on this year
VALE looks interesting there as well:
And PBR
Some interesting stuff from Tucker Carlson last week on the political situation there, which is a stark contrast to Argentina. I still like the Argentine names and am in CEPU, LOMA, YPF, and IRS, just a bit more extended.
Precious metals came alive on PCE and Waller’s comments. I took profits on most of my positions on the close Friday but will be looking to add back on any dips as I do like the way this GDX chart looks.
The one I do hold is SBSW, riskier name that’s lagged.
Uranium names could be starting to come back. Besides AAPL, CCJ is my biggest unrealized loser but it undercut and rallied at the January low and the 10 day.
Besides VALE, some other metals could be interesting here, I am currently long AA and FCX.
I came into PCE feeling a bit cautious after a hotter than expected CPI and PPI. Now I would still be a bit cautious after the big rally to end the week. I’m decently long but did add a couple of SPY put spreads and still am long VIX.
NYCB continued to have issues and ended up making new lows.
We continue to think this is the canary in the coal mine for regional banks.
Meanwhile, retail favorite SMCI is being added to the S&P 500. With much less fanfare, ZION is being removed. I have to figure this further weakens sentiment in regional banks. I own SMCI and am looking at the possibility of doing an ETF on it, but ZION could be more interesting to me as it’s the 6th largest position in KRE, and therefore SKRE as well.
ARKK is a good name to watch to get a sense of risk appetite, it looks like a double top here:
Not a ton of data this week until jobs on Friday, but we have the pleasure of hearing from Powell twice, always has the potential to be market moving.
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Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
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