Financial News vs. Noise
Kind of what you would expect with bullish sentiment but needing to settle down a bit. Beneath the surface GEO and CXW both had great days. I continue to think the whole personal safety/law and order theme is going to be strong into 2024.
Gold and silver miners also did great. I continue to own GFI and PAAS. Was looking for potential dips to add but none were forthcoming. This will continue to be my top watch until something else looks more interesting.
I continue to be wrong on oil, solar, and China. Noticed this in the FT this morning. Quant hedge funds bet on China despite investor exodus Regulators step up scrutiny of sector but traders still drawn by China’s low correlation with other markets. I bought the dip on oil and solar, and will be watching China today, looks to be dipping again.
I continue to watch the other commodity names. I own AA which looks like it wants to move, but isn’t really so far. Watching ALB, which got crushed yesterday. Watching AR in the natural gas area, which also got crushed. CF had an undercut and rally at the 200 day, so we will be looking at that today.
On the short side RILY continues to look like it’s circling the drain. ANF stopped me out like it always seems to do, but I am still short M. I don’t think the consumer is in great shape, nor do I think the retailers are. FIVE is another name I will be watching, it’s up like 45 points in 2 months.
I will be watching COIN which has rallied off the Binance news. Was looking double toppy on Friday but surpassed the July peak with yesterday’s move.
Consumer staples seem a bit overbought and KHC is pushing into it’s 200 day.
VIX was up a bit, but just a bit. Doesn’t seem like people are hedging into PCE on Thursday and with VIX this cheap I will probably pick some up before then. Didn’t want to buy the small pop yesterday.
My overall strategy remains the same, buy any Magnificent 7 stocks that sell off into support, watch gold and silver, and buy names and sectors that are oversold. NVDA is a great example as it pulled into it’s 20 day EMA and held.
Here’s why Nvidia is a compelling stock when compared with the rest of the ‘Magnificent Seven’-MarketWatch
On the short side I want to have some exposure but only special situations and overbought areas.
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News vs. Noise
This is going to be the focus in 2024. Investors See Interest-Rate Cuts Coming Soon, Recession or Not Recent data has fueled bets that cuts could come under a variety of circumstances-WSJ
Don’t often agree with Mark Hulbert, but on this I do. Betting on Wall Street’s market forecasts predicts trouble for your portfolio-MarketWatch
Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
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