Financial News vs. Noise
Great day for the Argentine stocks yesterday, especially in such a bad tape. PCE this morning, so anything could happen. Some interesting Fed speak yesterday. John Williams is NY Fed President and Vice Chairman of the FOMC….
Looking at this broader context, the behavior of the economy over the past year provides ample evidence that monetary policy is restrictive in a way that helps us achieve our goals
Not quite sure what he’s smoking. His predecessor wrote an Op Ed in Bloomberg and had a very different take…
I think r* is a lot higher than the Fed recognizes - which means the central bank isn't doing enough to fight inflation.
Just all further reinforces my view that these guys have no clue and are making it up as they go along.
Looking at SPY my sense is that we are a bit oversold, but could see it move into the 50 day on a hot PCE.
Same deal on QQQ, except it is more extended from it’s 50 day.
The Dow looks like a textbook double top short sale. However there is some strong looking support at $37,750.
Yesterday’s strength in small caps was interesting as the large cap indices took a beating. IWM had a undercut and rally at it’s 50 day.
Semi’s had their worst day in a while. Interestingly I think we had our best inflow day ever into NVDX as investors bought the dip on NVDA. I did also.
I do think you need to buy dips in NVDA until that stops working.
Rates came down nicely also.
If we didn’t have PCE this morning I would probably be very bullish for today.
Going to take profits on most of my Argentine exposure and look for dips to get back in. Also going to take profits on my ARKK puts as I am up over 69% on those (thank you Cathie). My pullback watchlist is interesting as it is almost all big cap tech. MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, MU, AVGO, DELL, TSM, CRWD, PANW. As long as they don’t pop at the open we will be getting into some of these names today. On that list, DELL looks like one name that won’t pop as their earnings seemed to disappoint.
DJT is a name I love to trade and could end up going long today if this dip persists. No matter what you think of Trump the fact that his fundraising website went down after the verdict reinforces my view that this will end up being a net positive for him.
Also watch the law and order stocks. SWBI initially popped last night. Not sure if that was expectations of a Trump presidency or a civil war.
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