Financial News vs. Noise
Another strong day, most likely driven by the softer jobs and deceleration of average hourly earnings on Friday. Earnings are still in full swing and interestingly the main takeaway from consumer discretionary is the impact of inflation. From Tyson…
"..in retail, we're seeing roughly 20% cumulative inflation over the last three years. Now the inflation impact coupled with historically low savings rates has created a more cautious, price-sensitive consumer. And we're also seeing a cautious consumer prioritize essential staples over discretionary categories."
Starbucks….
"But in this environment, many customers are being more exacting about where and how they choose to spend their money, particularly with stimulus savings mostly spent. We saw this materialize over the quarter as customers made the tradeoffs between food away from home and food at home."
We have been focused on the 50 day moving average, which the market broke through decisively…
Rates, which continued to drop…..
And semi’s, which continued to rally….
For now it looks like the market is betting on inflation coming down, growth slowing, but not too much, and two fed rate cuts. My guess is that they will be disappointed in there somewhere, but for now the bulls are back in charge.
It could, but is it worth the risk? I don’t think so. I believe TLT is a trading vehicle and advocate a barbell approach to portfolio management. For me, this means a core in Tbills with most risk capital in options where risk is defined. For someone else it could mean something entirely different, but bonds kind of suck. Cash is outperforming bonds this year. A Fed pivot could change that.-MarketWatch
Typically true, path of least resistance is up. History shows quiet weeks for economic data are often the best weeks for stocks. Here’s what to watch.-MarketWatch
I do think that AI infrastructure is going to be a very interesting idea of investment going forward. JLL Says AI Demand Turns Data Centers Into ‘Hottest Asset Class’-Bloomberg
An AI spin on real estate adds to the technology’s emerging footprint in the US economy beyond the hardware and software industries. Utility company Dominion Energy Inc. said last week that data-center developers in northern Virginia were asking for the equivalent of several nuclear reactors’ worth of power. Another utility, Exelon Inc., predicted that AI-driven data centers in the Chicago area were poised to gobble up 900% more electricity.
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Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
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