Financial News vs. Noise
One of these days the market will actually go down, it just may not this year. Another strong day across the board with just about every sector we watch in the green. Economic news continued to point to a soft landing (again I don’t’ believe it) with housing starts shattering forecasts and the Atlanta Fed raising their GDP estimates. A bit of red on the screen this morning. At this point any weakness is a gift to dip buyers. I raised some cash yesterday, mostly selling out of Chinese names. Until proven otherwise I think you rent China, you don’t own it. Basically just have Gold, oil names, MOS in fertilizers, and then MSFT, which is the least extended Magnificent 7 name. Would love a nice down day to add back some exposure.
Did add some shorts, solar’s have been ripping but you are seeing a lot of going concern issues there. So I shorted the rip in FSLR.
While I do think commodities are the place to be, I also think AA got a bit ahead of itself.
First off, a lot of people called the year end rally, that means nothing when it comes to next year. Second, look at the structure of the market, money automatically flows into SPY and QQQ, which are mostly Magnificent 7. So do the math, if we have an up year in the market the Magnificent will do well. Does that mean it’s the best spot for 2024? Maybe, but I doubt it. Investor who called year-end stock rally says ‘Magnificent 7’ may continue to lead in 2024-MarketWatch
Except that bears flipping is often a sign of a top. One of Wall Street’s biggest bears says the Fed is giving investors a good reason to be bullish in 2024-MarketWatch
You think? El-Erian Says Fed Has a ‘Real Problem’ With Communication-Bloomberg
“The whole point of Fed communication is to do two things: One is to be transparent, and two is to enhance the power of forward policy guidance,” he said Tuesday on Bloomberg Television. “Instead, Fed communication confuses people. I think we have a real problem.”
Yep, this is confusing. Powell’s Pivot Sows Confusion Over When and How Fast Fed Will Cut Some officials have tried to keep their options open by leaning back against expectations of a March rate cut-WSJ
Cramer continues his success in calling earnings plays :) FedEx stock slumps after delivery giant forecasts sales decline-MarketWatch
As I have said, I like the commodity stocks here, and oil stocks in particular. What I don’t know yet though, is the spike in oil prices just this? Oil prices notch back-to-back gains after suspension of Red Sea shipments-MarketWatch
Coal is another area I like, BTU keeps running away from me though. Energy Stocks Attract More Short Sales. Three Names Stand Out.-Barron’s
Coal stocks’ performance has been mixed in the past month, with Arch Resources ARCH 3.42% rising 5%, Peabody Energy up 2%, and Alliance Resource Partners down 8%. But coal faces a rocky future. The International Energy Agency said last week that coal consumption will hit a record this year, but should start to decline next year.
And, least extended Mag 7 name. Pretty wimpy though making this your top pick. The AI Run Isn’t Over. Microsoft Stock Is Oppenheimer’s Top 2024 Large-Cap Pick.-Barron’s
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Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
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