Financial News vs. Noise
The market continues to be dominated by NVDA. It looked like Tuesday’s rally was going to be retraced but at the end of the day buyers flooded in and closed the stock slightly up. The 20 day EMA would be my spot here for either a bounce or a move downward. Still think you have to buy weakness in NVDA.
JP Morgan does some good research on retail buying and according to them retail added $1.8B to NVDA this past week, buying the dip. They estimate that retail traders are up 179% YTD.
Semi’s are likely to be interesting today as MU announced earnings last night that the market didn’t take well. Looks like it would open below it’s 20 day EMA. There is some support at 135 and 130, so watch all of those levels.
Micron’s Selloff Highlights Risk of Sky-High AI Expectations-Bloomberg
Days after leading AI chipmaker Nvidia Corp. slumped by nearly half a trillion dollars, Micron shares fell about 8% in extended trading after the memory maker offered a forecast that fell short of the highest estimates.
AMD has gone the opposite way of NVDA, it’s on my watchlist today if we get a dip.
QCOM is also on my watchlist today to buy on any weakness.
Rates jumped yesterday, I think you had a Fed head talk about no cuts this year. If rates move significantly one way or the other then it will be important, just doesn’t look like that’s going to happen at the moment.
Money just seems to want to move around the Magnificent 7. Yesterday was AMZN, AAPL, and TSLA. I continue to think you have to be trading the Mag 7 names.
I continue to believe that AI infrastructure is another area you have to be trading, but it’s not easy. AI Mania Has Electrified These 2 Utility Stocks. They Aren’t Cheap Anymore.-Barron’s
But Nvidia and other big techs aren’t the only stocks riding the artificial intelligence wave. Check out two utilities. Vistra VST-3.91% has more than doubled this year. Constellation Energy CEG-5.42% has surged nearly 80%. Contrast that with the rest of the sector. The Dow Jones Utility Average is only up about 2% this year.
Kicking around the idea of doing an ETF for this as the big utility ETFs don’t cut it.
I’m not really worried about the biggest banks as they are too big to fail, it’s the regionals I think will be the problem. Biggest Banks Can Withstand Severe Downturn, $685 Billion in Losses, Fed Says-WSJ
Then again…
Bank stress tests are like Monopoly, says one former banker. ‘Do not mistake either for reality.’-MarketWatch
“Bank stress tests are fun. They are interesting. So is a game of Monopoly. Do not mistake either for reality,” said Blain, adding that the current stress tests are a “tickbox.”
“Sadly… the reality remains: a) regulators plan to address the next financial crisis by understanding and planning to fight the last one, b) financial crises keep repeating, but no two crises are alike, and c) risk is not a constant, it is constantly changing dynamic,” he said.
KRE has been all over the place but a break below the 200 day would be a short trigger.
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