Financial News vs. Noise
I am scheduled to be on the Charles Schwab Network today at 9:45AM to talk about the market. I am also scheduled to be on Bloomberg on Monday at 12:15 to talk about single stock ETFs.
What started off looking ugly ended up being a risk on day. Powell was interviewed in the morning and came out slightly dovish, indicating that data was back on the disinflation trend. From Jefferies…
Our view remains that we should see a slowing down of the employment data over the coming months. If employment slows and the disinflation trend in intact (we don't need to see sharp fall in inflation, but a gradual move lower and definitely not an increase), Fed will deliver a September rate cut. Our view stems from our belief that leaving a positive legacy is an important consideration for Powell. A 25bp cut may not make much difference to the economy, but if the Fed is proactive, then no one can blame Powell for not doing his job by keeping rates higher for longer and engineering a slowdown.
Advance/Decline, which was ugly the day before, looked pretty strong.
The S&P 500 percent of stocks above their 20 day MA improved a bit.
NVDA was red again, so it was positive the see the market rally without it. TSLA continued it’s breakout, and is green this morning. We are long in our trend following model, but it just showed up in one of our short screens and if it opens here we would also be shorting it this morning.
Doubt we are alone as we saw pretty big flows into our inverse TSLA ETF yesterday.
I think there are areas of the market you want to buy if it seems like Trump will be elected. You can trade DJT, and I like the law and order names (GEO, AXON, SWBI, CXW, etc). I’d be careful shorting solar’s just because of the AI energy need. I do not think Treasuries are the trade, at least not based on Trump. The only candidate that really even talks about the deficit is RFK Jr. and it’s highly unlikely he gets elected. Sudden Return of the Trump Trade Sends Treasurys Reeling-WSJ
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Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
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