Financial News vs. Noise
Another interesting week, no surprises from Powell but a hotter than expected jobs number, and revisions down for a previous number again. A lot of moving around but the overall market didn’t really go anywhere.
Still clearly in an uptrend though. We have CPI and PPI this week so ought to be interesting. The reversal we saw on Friday was interesting. On the one hand, the market couldn’t just go up forever and if you are a bull you need to see a pullback from time to time. On the other, if you are a bear looking for a top, that’s kind of what it would look like. This Barron’s cover is also a good sign for the bears
Not thinking this is the top at the moment and the fact that we don’t have any continuation at the moment is also good for the bulls.
Same deal with the NASDAQ 100 but it had a tougher week.
The Magnificent 7 names are all having some issues, except maybe META. NVDA finally had a red day on Friday, have to assume it’s a buy the dip for now. Would prefer it to settle into the 10 day, but you may not get that chance.
GOOGL had a U&R at it’s 200 day and could be buyable right here with the 200 day as a stop.
TSLA had an UR at the February low of 175.01. You could use that as a stop for a long. Maybe it will catch a break this week.
Dip buying continues to pay off in the crypto miners. CLSK sold off into it’s 20 day EMA, pulled a U&R, and then bounced.
Similar move from MARA at the 50 day.
COIN is just a beast. I’m currently long but I would not chase here.
I talked to a Newsweek reporter about Trump’s claims that his poll numbers are responsible for the stock market rally. Is Trump Really Responsible for Stock Market Rally? What We Know. My sense has always been that Presidents don’t really move overall markets, but they can move sectors. That’s why I have been watching the personal safety and migrant crisis stocks. SWBI is one of the names I trade here, and currently own. They announced some strong numbers Friday.
My other favorites are GEO, CXW, and AXON. Biden’s SOTU didn’t seem to have an impact on them and they are all in an uptrend. DWAC is another one, more closely tied to Trump. I am also long this name, but it had a tough end to the week.
Gold miners continue to have a parabolic move off the bottom. Still not sure exactly why, however, I suspect it now could have something to do with Powell waffling on his 2% inflation target.
In currencies I got back into long Yen last week (FXY). Could easily see this retest the highs.
On the short side I continue to watch the regional banks. After an NYCB fueled sell off, KRE is almost back to where it was.
ANF is also interesting. This has been a widowmaker on the short side, but it is finally showing some signs.
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