Financial News vs. Noise
I continue to be cautious about this market due to higher rates, horrible breadth, and the fact that it is highly unlikely the Fed will cut rates in March. However, if the bears were going to get something done it would have been yesterday, but the market held.
Speaking of rates I did flip from puts to calls on TLT as it is short term oversold. I would love to see it move back above the 200 day and if it has more downside I would expect 93 to hold.
I’m short FXI, which is going to leave a mark this morning, but I am up 52% on my puts so have some cushion. It is possible China is bottoming here, but I will believe it when I see it.
At this point the only themes gaining any traction this year are AI and weight loss. On AI it’s been the Magnificent 6, SMCI, and a bunch of peripheral names like ASML. I think you continue to buy those dips if we ever see another one. Something like SMCI has been a monster, I missed this move and am not going to chase.
In weight loss it’s been LLY and NVO. I believe those drugs are abhorrent and I think there will be side effects. If anyone wants to go down the rabbit hole Calley Means did a great interview with Tucker the other day:
https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1753551818523541526
I believe what Calley is saying is true, but I don’t believe it will change anytime soon and these companies will continue churning out profits as people would prefer to take a drug for a lifetime than changing their diets.
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