Financial News vs. Noise
The first episode of The Watchlist can be seen here. https://youtube.com/live/bpODVg5pO2g. We plan to do this every Thursday at 11:30AM. If there are any names you would like us to cover just let me know.
So that was ugly. Sometimes the day after a selloff you want the market to start out red, today is not one of those days. Yesterday almost completely retraced the prior day’s move in SPY, unless something changes this morning we drop under the 50 day and take out Tuesday’s low. Remember we do have jobs at 8:30, quite honestly not sure what will help more, a strong print or a weak one. Looking at a chart of the SPY (assuming nothing changes after jobs) this looks like a short. It also looks a lot like what we saw in April.
My sense is that the main culprit yesterday was a concern that the Fed is behind again. No shit. Can’t assume the same guys who called inflation transitory are going to engineer a soft landing. Intermediate term I am not concerned because we are in an easing cycle. Powell didn’t come right out and say we are going to cut in September, but yesterday’s weak economic data make it more and more likely. Shorter term, the important lows from this week and last week are all being taken out pre market. There may be some support in the 535 area.
Adding to the short term concern, yesterday was the first real “risk off” day we have seen in a while. The selloff’s we have seen the past couple of weeks have been more of a rotation out of mega cap tech into small caps and other areas. Yesterday was selling everywhere.
AMZN and AAPL reported last night. AMZN is down big while AAPL is flattish. In perfect world, traders would have used their earnings as a catalyst to buy the dip, this morning we don’t have a perfect world. You could short AMZN right here. Those looking to go long I would watch a couple of lows—$176.80, $173.87, and $166.32. You also have the 200 day lurking. An undercut and rally of them could be a long entry.
AAPL is sitting on 3 moving averages. A break above or below could trigger longs or shorts.
My sense on both is I would prefer to buy the dips.
I disagree with this, everything takes a village. Yes, NVDA is going to a major winner, but a rising tide lifts all boats. Big Tech’s AI Race Has One Main Winner: Nvidia-WSJ
Still a big fan of everything AI infrastructure.
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Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
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