Financial News vs. Noise
I will be on a Twitter spaces with @Wolf_Financial this morning at 9:30am EST to talk about some of our new product filings.
Weaker than expected retail sales on Tuesday helped the bad news is good news narrative. This market continues to be about trend following on NVDA and select AI/tech stocks and counter trend moves on everything else.
‘Long Magnificent Seven’ is now one of the most crowded trades on record, new poll shows-MarketWatch
I do think this is different as you need Nvidia’s chips for AI. Nvidia’s Ascent to Most Valuable Company Has Echoes of Dot-Com Boom Chip maker passes Microsoft for top spot, just as John Chambers-led Cisco Systems did two decades ago. He says the situation now is different.-WSJ
Nvidia’s chips have been the workhorses of the AI boom, essential tools in the creation of sophisticated AI systems that have captured the public’s imagination with their ability to produce cogent text, images and audio with minimal prompting.
How long can this narrow leadership continue? That’s the million dollar question. At some point either the rest of the market joins in, or we get a correction in the AI stuff. Both of those things are going to happen, we just don’t know when or in what order.
Steve Cohen’s Point72 looks to raise $1 billion for new AI-focused fund: report-MarketWatch
Cohen, who owns the New York Mets baseball team, also said he believes markets are “discounting” the benefits of AI while dismissing the notion that the world is experience an AI bubble.
Rates also retraced the prior two days rise, which didn’t hurt equities.
We have talked about gold and the miners, GDX seems to have found some support at the 33 area. Some talk that JP Morgan upgrading South Africa could be a positive for gold miners as well. Then there is also this. Gold can help hedge inflation risks of Republican sweep, says Goldman Sachs-MarketWatch
Silver not quite as strong but could be looking to find some support here as well. My favorite silver miner to trade, PAAS, tried to pull an undercut and rally at the 50 day.
The Dow and small caps have now been up two days in a row. Not quite a trend yet, but a promising development nonetheless.
Regional banks had an undercut and rally at the 200 day. Not a fan longer term, but this could be a spot for a bounce.
Not quite sure what to make of this but suspect it will help regional banks stay volatile, which creates trading opportunities. Regional Banks Want to Slim Down. Hedge Funds Smell a Bargain. After failures, the lenders are paying fund managers to share risk-WSJ
Ohio-based Huntington Bancshares recently entered into an arrangement to sell investors some of the risk that its borrowers won’t repay their loans. That helps the bank meet new proposed standards meant to make lenders look healthy to regulators.
In EM, Mexico and Brazil have been brutal. Keep an eye out for potential bounces here, especially Mexico.
China looks to be finding some support.
I bought the dip in PDD Tuesday and will be looking for add spots today.
Aerospace and defense stocks (ITA) had an undercut and rally at the 50 day.
I bought LMT on Tuesday.
And right on cue, looks like another war. Israel and Hezbollah Inch Toward Wider War-WSJ
Oil stocks are trying to find some support. I already own XOP and XOM and added CVX on Tuesday. I also flipped short to long on OIH.
Solar’s look like they are also trying to bottom.
I did add FSLR the other day, a bit early
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