Financial News vs. Noise
Brendan Wood International (our partners in BWTG) constantly survey the world’s top money managers about their expectations for the market and the economy. This is from their latest survey, starting to turn bearish:
Big Ticket Investors Ease Off A Little
Global Demand for Added Equity Exposure Drops
Are you planning to be a net buyer in the near term 3 months? (Net buyer means own more $ in equities than you do today.)
January 24th 2024 - Yes = 51% (53% - January 8th 2024)
January 24th 2024 - No = 49% (47% - At January 8th 2024)Likelihood Of A Recession Consensus This Year All Investors
January 24th 2024 = 37%
The news of the day is likely to be TSLA earnings. Lots of retail guys have been short, so congratulations to anyone that was. We have both sides but way more assets in the long TSLA so going to put a bit of a dent in AUM today. As far as TLSA goes there is a low of 191.25 in October. For now I would use that as a reference point for perhaps an undercut and rally move. If it blows through to the downside, that could also be a stop for a short.
Besides that, market looking pretty flat with the areas that were red yesterday green this morning. Kind of what I continue to expect, no great traction on the indices with money moving from spot to spot. Continue to keep an eye on rates. Yesterday we saw a very strong open that mostly sold off, likely due to higher rates and a weak 5yr auction. This morning rates look a bit lower, but it’s early. Overall the trend looks up.
Yesterday I went back into precious metals on weakness adding GDX, SLV, XME, and SIL. If this strength continues I would expect we would be out of most of that today.
I continue to believe that the market will have a hard time gaining traction with the continued disconnect between the Fed and stock traders on rate cuts. Better than expected economic numbers and rising yields are not helping either. The market feels heavy but bears can’t get any traction here either. My sense continues to be buy Magnificent 7 on weakness and do the same with other areas—commodity names, small caps, etc. If I am right about the market, and you are nimble, there will still be opportunities to make money.
Subscribe to our other newsletters
Laffer Tengler Research Bulletin
Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
At Tuttle Capital Management (“TCM”), we want to help educate investors about different ways to allocate and manage assets. TCM strives to create innovative portfolio management tools coupled with investment strategies designed to help mitigate risks and potentially enhance returns.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day. The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades.
Tuttle Capital Management is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investor’s financial situation.
© 2023 Tuttle Capital Management LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved.
