Financial News vs. Noise

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As I said in yesterday’s note, we have flipped to being much more bullish, but we don’t think this is going to be easy and also think the market needs to settle down a bit. Yesterday we saw the resumption of the theme we have come to know very well—mega cap tech NASDAQ stock rally with awful breadth. At some point that can’t continue, we either need to see the rest of the market join the rally, or we need to see mega cap tech sell off. In the meantime I think the entire playbook is open. You want to lean long, but there are still going to be spots to short, and there were those yesterday.

Regional banks once again reversed yesterday. I am not sure that equity sentiment changing helps them much and continue to look for spots to short. Yesterday, I shorted CMA, which I believe has the second biggest commercial real estate exposure of all the regionals (not sure who is number 1).

I was short AX from Friday which worked out pretty well.

TRUP is another name I shorted on Friday.

TSLA broke it’s 200 day yesterday becoming shortable. As you know we now have leveraged ways to play it, which just got listed options yesterday. Nothing better for degenerate traders than options on 2x ETFs :)

I also shorted VLO which broke it’s 200 day.

On the long side, CXW reported earnings last night and GEO does this morning. I broke my rule of not holdings into earnings, but cut my positions a lot just in case. Looks like CXW beat, but it was down after hours. I got stopped out of my silver name, AG, and AU is looking ugly pre market. My idea of playing commodity names didn’t work out yesterday either as I got stopped out of MOS and didn’t see anything actionable anywhere else. KTOS is one long that continues to work from last week.

I should have added to it when it undercut and rallied at the 10 day yesterday but I was playing golf. Will look for possible adds today. Nothing much jumps out at me on the long side at the moment, and markets are red this morning so we will see how things shake out. Maybe the airlines if this rally continues but not high conviction there at the moment.

Some earnings names that could be interesting from last night and this morning are: GT, TRIP, UBER, TOST and DDOG.

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News vs. Noise

We will see, I’m not convinced yet. There Isn’t an EV Apocalypse. It’s Simply Econ 101.-Barron’s

That’s the key point now, when do they cut, how much, and what’s the neutral rate? Stocks Ease as Fed Rate-Cut Doubts Creep In: Markets Wrap-Bloomberg

Wall Street Bosses in Hong Kong See Financial Dangers Everywhere Financial leaders gauge possibility of new inflation or crisis ‘One more geopolitical escalation and there’s a market event’-Bloomberg

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