Financial News vs. Noise
In the news:
Matthew Tuttle's Unraveling Market Myths
The most interesting thing to come out of yesterday was the Bitcoin ETF approval that turned out to not be an approval.
SEC Chair @GaryGensler: The @SECGov twitter account was compromised, and an unauthorized tweet was posted. The SEC has not approved the listing and trading of spot bitcoin exchange-traded products. 16:26 ET
CPI is tomorrow and PPI is Friday so not expecting a bunch of activity until then. This article sums up the situation going into CPI pretty well.
‘Goldilocks thinking’ can set stock-market investors up for losses: Howard Marks-MarketWatch
Marks, the billionaire co-founder of distressed-securities juggernaut Oaktree Capital Management, boiled down his assessment of the current market consensus in five bullet points:
Inflation is moving in the right direction and will soon reach the Fed’s target of roughly 2%.
As a consequence, additional rate increases won’t be necessary.
As a further consequence, we’ll have a soft landing marked by a minor recession or none at all.
Thus, the Fed will be able to take rates back down.
This will be good for the economy and the stock market.
“Before going further, I want to note that, to me, these five bullet points smack of ‘Goldilocks thinking’: the economy won’t be hot enough to raise inflation or cold enough to bring on an economic slowdown,” Marks said.
I do not believe in the Goldilocks scenario, but I do believe the market does. So, until proven otherwise I will continue to buy dips, sell rips, and only selectively look for shorts. However, on any hint of a dent in this thesis, I will get much more aggressive on the short side.
Going to watching China names today, slightly green pre market. Energy, gold miners, and metals. CVE in energy continues to be interesting. Massive bullish call flow but the price keeps going down. Again, I have highlighted the dangers of buying or selling based on options flow alone, you don’t know the entire context and you don’t know whether the trader is a moron or not. However, oil stocks are an area of interest so I am hanging on.
I missed the move in CCJ yesterday which pisses me off, not going to chase now but perhaps if we get a pullback.
All the potential short sale set ups I was seeing in mega cap tech have all reversed. Kind of thought that may happen, which is why I didn’t short anything.
CF pulled back into it’s 50 day and held, will be watching this one closely today.
Nothing else looks especially compelling, especially ahead of CPI.
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Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
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