Financial News vs. Noise
Technical Analysis VS Jim Cramer For Retail Traders
I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving. Wednesday was not without it’s fireworks. NVDA was all over the place, but as I thought it had trouble with $500.
As I talked about on the video with Bullish Bears this looks like a short on a bunch of different levels—-failure at $500, double top, break of the 10 day. But, it’s NVDA. If the general market weakens, then this could be a good short. If not, expect it to consolidate and move back up. I went long the stock on Wednesday. It is down this morning on some China news but I think there are a bunch of different support levels in the 470s.
The SPX broke 4500 and the year highs look to be next. Don’t really see anything that can stop that, but I do expect them to try to consolidate these gains somewhat more than just the inside day we saw on Tuesday.
On a weekly chart of the NDX you see the post Fed pivot highs clearly on the table. Amazing to me based on where interest rates and inflation are compared to then, but the market is a forward looking mechanism. I have to think at some point higher for longer sinks in and something has to give if the Fed doesn’t start aggressively cutting soon.
Small Caps (IWM) are still stuck under their 200 day.
10 year rates moved around a lot, but ended pretty much unch.
Meanwhile, VIX came pretty close to testing the lows. I did add a UVXY position on Wednesday. It can stay down here for a while but I can’t imagine it goes much lower than 12.68
.On the long side my prison stocks GEO and CXW both had really good days. I continue to try to buy them on dips and trim on rips.
The oil stocks were interesting. Oil got crushed early on OPEC news, but closed well off the lows. To add insult to injury, I am long APA which also got a downgrade from Citi. However, it also closed well off the lows. May end up switching back to CVX as I now like that setup better, but prefer the added beta you get in APA.
Precious metals were down slightly and the miners had an inside day. I have no positions at the moment but this is still my top watch.
I went long TSLA Wednesday when it bounced at it’s 10 day. Short leash as I want to see it break back above the 50 day. This fits in with my thinking going into year end that money managers looking to catch up are going to look for stocks that are not extended. TSLA being in the Magnificent 7 doesn’t hurt either. Like NVDA, I would be careful shorting it, but TSLA has issues NVDA doesn’t have and I could see it re testing 190, so I will be watching this a two directional idea.
Still eyeing airlines but they spiked a bit on the drop in oil and then I was a bit concerned about the potential terrorist attack near the Canadian border. Will continue to watch.
I continue to like Chinese names here and I am in BABA. Was eying BIDU but it popped almost 6% and is butting against it’s 50 day.
Other areas I like on the long side are biotech and Solar. In biotech my favorite is SDGR, which combines biotech and AI. Needs to break it’s 200 day.
On the short side I continue to be in AX and RILY and I watch TRUP very closely. RILY had a tough day on Wednesday. I went back into regional banks, ZION in particular, but they all look pretty much the same. I also shorted M and ANF. I believe the consumer is not nearly as strong as the numbers show and I also think traditional retail is in trouble. Furthermore, I think the younger consumer strapped with college loans is in even worse shape. Regardless, ANF has been a tough name to short. I do get some comfort from URBN, which I have been short but unfortunately was not Wednesday, when it was down over 12%.
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News vs. Noise
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Going to see a lot of this going into year end. Investment banks have a terrible record of being able to call market levels. RBC and BofA see S&P 500 heading to 5,000 in 2024, but here are 10 reasons why investors should still tread carefully-MarketWatch
Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
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