Financial News vs. Noise
The two main areas I have been focused on for a while were both in play yesterday, Fed/rates and semiconductors. First the Fed minutes came out and spooked the market, but didn’t do a ton to rates. After hours NVDA announced earnings, and gave the market what it wanted, a 10 for 1 stock split. Bottom line on the Fed, they seem to be done raising rates, so while we will probably have higher for longer, the next move is down and the market seems to be good with that. It seems like they have moved the goalposts in inflation, but perhaps everyone doesn’t agree. Fed Officials Saw Longer Wait for Rate Cuts After Inflation Setbacks Minutes of their last meeting revealed some officials were open to raising rates if inflation reaccelerated-WSJ
Retail sales also came in below consensus, further showing consumer weakness.
Bottom line, NVDA gave the market what it needed and while higher for longer is a problem, it seems like the market is fine with 0-1 cuts this year. Just keep your head on a swivel as signs of stagflation changes the dynamic. JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon says can’t rule out ‘hard landing’ for the U.S., stagflation will be ‘worst outcome’-CNBC.com
Probably going to be active today. Looking to buy the dips in gold miners, China, and Argentina. Homebuilders are also interesting, they got crushed yesterday and New Home Sales come out today. Will be looking to buy that dip as well.
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