Financial News vs. Noise
I am scheduled to be on Bloomberg on Monday at 12:15 to talk about single stock ETFs.
Rates lower and risk assets higher on weak economic data and Fed minutes showing no hurry to cut rates (came out after the market had closed). With the trend in weak economic data the possibility of a cut in September is on the table. Jobs number today could be important, if anyone is around to trade it. From Jefferies….
Today the focus would be on the US employment report. Consensus for NFP is 190k. In our view, the sweet spot for risk would be 150-170k, which is sightly soft but not weak enough to raise concerns. A number below 100K would raise concerns over the economy while a number greater than 250K would reduce odds of a Fed cut.
Went net short TSLA yesterday as you have to figure a 40+ point move over 3 days has to retrace somewhat. Seems I’m not alone as TSLZ (2x inverse TSLA) is at a high water mark for AUM.
NVDA was flat for most of the day, then I turned my head and it was up over 4%. Looks buyable here over the 10 day.
I do think you have to own some NVDA long term and should buy dips short term, but I also think the AI trade needs to broaden out. Retail investors have reached peak bullishness for Nvidia, these analyst say. Here’s where they may go next.-MarketWatch
They say inflows to Nvidia to may possibly pick up again before the chipmaker’s earnings due Aug. 23, but with that “peak” buying largely done, investors could begin to rotate into “cheaper” AI proxies, including Advance Micro Devices AMD, -0.25%, Super Micro Computer SMCI, +1.17% and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing TSM, +3.86%.
Not a huge fan of those names, but I am of this one. ASML Stock Is an AI Chip Hero. Why It’s Set for a Boost.-Barron’s
ASML supplies the lithography machines that are essential for manufacturing semiconductors.
And of course I love the power plays. Electricity Demand Is Surging in These States Because of AI and Crypto-Barron’s
Among the big winners are Constellation Energy and Vistra Energy, which own several nuclear plants that are in high demand. Texas power producer NRG Energy has also done particularly well.
Elias expects other winners to emerge as power demands rise. His picks to profit include data center-related companies like Digital Realty, Equinix, andVertiv, which should benefit as their services are in higher demand.
Other potential beneficiaries include power-related semiconductor companies such as Wolfspeed, Infineon, STMicroelectronics, and Power Integrations.
Natural gas producer Coterra could see more demand for natural gas for power production. Utility tech providerItroncan help utilities manage the new power needs.
Nuscale is looking to build small nuclear reactors that could provide power to data centers. And Brookfield Renewable Group should profit as it builds more wind and solar farms to produce electricity.
Wall Street strategists are as good as predicting the market as the rest of us, meaning they can’t. They are safe if they stay in the pack. They can get famous if they make an outlier call, but if they are very wrong this happens. Wall Street Bids Adieu to Its Biggest Bear
JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic had a knack for making aggressive calls, but now the analyst is out after missing a roaring bull market
Keep an eye on this. Of course we are finally planning to launch our new 2x spot bitcoin ETFs on Thursday. Great timing or awful timing? Over $170 billion wiped off cryptocurrencies as market tanks on Mt. Gox bitcoin payout fears-CNBC.com
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Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
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