Financial News vs. Noise
ETF Spotlight: SKRE Wins Bearish Bet on Regional Banks
That was ugly. Had a sense that Thursday’s rally wasn’t as bullish as everyone was thinking and that played out. Obviously the “war” in the Middle East weighed on the market and bank earnings didn’t help. When your CEO is Jamie Dimon and he says this, that could spook investors a bit…
"I personally do not want to buy back a lot more than that at these current prices. I think you've all heard me talk about the world, things like that."
This morning futures are higher as it looks like the Iranian and Israeli actions may have been choreographed with Iran given the ok to attack a certain way and Israel wanting to fight back but being encouraged not to. Everyone saves face and there is no escalation. We will see how that works out. Tensions are still high and we could have a broader war. One important thing to keep in mind about war and the markets, war doesn’t necessarily mean that oil goes higher and stocks go lower.
I still think the main driver is going to be the Fed. Goldman said this…
“Currently, I think fed easing will have a later start in 2024 rather than no-cut at all. That said, the strength in the labor market and the continued monthly inflation prints, make it reasonable to consider a no-cut scenario (for probably the first time this year).” -Josh Schiffrin, Goldman Sachs
The S&P briefly dipped below it’s 50 day for the first time since November, but it held. That’s going to be key support here.
VIX had a massive jump on war fears and almost got back the psychologically important 20 area. Remember VIX needs a reason to stay elevated, if tensions stay down expect VIX to get crushed.
Gold was interesting Friday. A lot of people think gold is a flight to safety asset, but it can really be a lot of different things at different times. Friday looked a bit toppy.
This is funny, the opportunity of a lifetime was late February, early March. The ‘opportunity of a lifetime’ may unfold for gold and silver this week, amid Middle East tensions-MarketWatch
I was going to aggressively buy the dip on Friday but I got stuck on a plane. Buying a bunch of options on your phone using plane wifi is a recipe for disaster so I was hoping for some red this morning, which isn’t looking likely. However, VIX is not down nearly as much as I would have expected. Not predicting it but think we could easily see some red as people fade the relief rally.
Subscribe to our other newsletters
Laffer Tengler Research Bulletin
Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
At Tuttle Capital Management (“TCM”), we want to help educate investors about different ways to allocate and manage assets. TCM strives to create innovative portfolio management tools coupled with investment strategies designed to help mitigate risks and potentially enhance returns.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day. The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades.
Tuttle Capital Management is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investor’s financial situation.
© 2023 Tuttle Capital Management LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved.
