Financial News vs. Noise
If Powell is looking for cover to cut rates he got it from the jobs number. The headline of 175k jobs created was actually worse due to a statistical adjustment, and jobs would have been negative without it. This added a second potential rate cut to the mix this year even though financial conditions are still extremely loose and inflation is sticky. The bulls got what they needed last week—slightly dovish Powell, decent earnings, and weak jobs. I still believe that the economy is much weaker than the numbers are showing and the possibility of stagflation is real.
The S&P failed to close above it’s 50 day, which could be important.
Make No Mistake—the Fed Isn’t the Market’s Friend. The S&P 500 Will Lose Steam.-Barron’s
If it can’t breach 5130, “that’s not a good thing,” says Matthew Tuttle of Tuttle Capital Management. “There are a lot of money managers that have hard and fast rules—they will not buy the market under the 50-day.”
Same with the NASDAQ 100
IWM is above it’s 50 day…
Rates are coming down, but still somewhat elevated.
If rates continue to come down that could favor small caps. I continue to think as long as the major indices are under the 50 day that caution is warranted. However, a number of sectors do look buyable here coming off oversold bottoms—ARKK names, Blockchain, Mexico, Brazil, Software, Transports, Steel, Homebuilders, and Healthcare. We could see a bounce as there is no big macro data this week and some names have room to the upside. I flipped from short to long on VIX at the close as VIX is the lowest it has been since March.
I also flipped from long to short on China (FXI) while taking profits on PDD and BABA.
Could always get advice from Jared Bernstein…
The Fed Should Tweak Its ‘Dot Plot,’ Chicago’s Goolsbee Says. Here’s How.
Subscribe to our other newsletters
Laffer Tengler Research Bulletin
Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
At Tuttle Capital Management (“TCM”), we want to help educate investors about different ways to allocate and manage assets. TCM strives to create innovative portfolio management tools coupled with investment strategies designed to help mitigate risks and potentially enhance returns.
The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the Chief Executive Officer and Portfolio Manager for Tuttle Capital Management (TCM) and are subject to change without notice. The data and information provided is derived from sources deemed to be reliable but we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Investing in securities is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. Trade notifications are for informational purposes only. TCM offers fully transparent ETFs and provides trade information for all actively managed ETFs. TCM's statements are not an endorsement of any company or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Trade notification files are not provided until full trade execution at the end of a trading day. The time stamp of the email is the time of file upload and not necessarily the exact time of the trades.
Tuttle Capital Management is not a commodity trading advisor and content provided regarding commodity interests is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation. Investment recommendations for any securities or product may be made only after a comprehensive suitability review of the investor’s financial situation.
© 2024 Tuttle Capital Management LLC (TCM). TCM is a SEC-Registered Investment Adviser. All rights reserved.
