Financial News vs. Noise
Another large intraday move. In the morning felt like one of those days that could go green to red, and that happened not long after the open. Got ugly for a while and then the market closed well off the lows. The past couple of days as I was seeing intraday red and all the damage it felt like a sentiment change. The the dip buyers came in and I kind of forgot about it. This morning looks like we are going to start off in the red, will be real interesting to see if the dip buyers materialize again. If they don’t then I will be looking to decrease my position sizing and looking to hold more SPY puts overnight.
I start off the morning looking at all the index ETFs to see what story they are telling. Interestingly this morning the consumer staples and discretionary seem to have stabilized a bit. Transports were the canary in the coal mine but they had a three day bounce until yesterday. Sitting in an important spot at the moment.
What sticks out is oil and the oil stocks. I was short OIH yesterday and out of the oil names except for FANG. I flipped long at the close and went back into CVX and XOP. Not looking like a great move so far this morning.
This news also came out yesterday. I launched SKRE in January because I felt like the regional bank crisis was not over and more banks were going to go under. $517,000,000,000 in Unrealized Losses Hit US Banking System, FDIC Says 63 Lenders on Brink of Insolvency-The Daily Hodl
On the bullish side rates have been moving down and are approaching their 200 day moving average. They bounced here in May. I flipped short TLT on the close.
Maybe, but maybe not. Nothing has changed in interest rate policy yet the 10 year has come down a lot. Probably a reason for that. Bad economic news has been good for stocks, but that could change this week-CNBC.com
Unlike Argentina, Mexico seems to have moved to the left. Mexico Hands More Power to the Left President-elect Claudia Sheinbaum and her Morena party win big. The peso and stock market fell in response.-WSJ
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Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
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