Financial News vs. Noise
@alifarhat79
My panel at the ETP Forum a couple of weeks ago about actively managed ETFs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LLlsQp4LQdo
Another day where they could have really sold this thing off but didn’t. Is that a sign of overall strength or do we eventually see a day where the market gets crushed? Still seeing a lot of weakness below the surface. Yesterday we saw it particularly in commodities, precious metals, emerging markets, and regional banks. Not a lot going on outside of NVDA, which is responsible for 38% of the S&P’s 11% ytd gain. Oh and this happened yesterday…
Weak JOLTS data helped rates continue to move lower, with the 10 year breaking the 200 day and now sitting at key support in the 4.25-35% range.
Interesting note out of Jeffries about the Fed, I do not disagree….
JOLTS data adds to a multitude of indicators that suggest that some slowdown maybe coming in the US labour market. Our thesis remains that we will see a slowdown in the labour market over the coming months. We are also in the camp that if the labour market slows down, Fed will prioritize employment over sticky inflation, particularly in an election year and deliver a rate cut, even if symbolic, before the elections.
I think this explains what we are seeing and why the bulls keep coming in. Bad news is still good news at the moment, but a rising tide is not lifting all boats.
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