Financial News vs. Noise
A busy week kicked off with the release of the Treasury’s quarterly net borrowing estimate, which came out lower than forecast. This dropped rates and turned a nothing day into a rally day. The 10 year is still above 4 and well above the lows from December.
The market doesn’t seem to care at the moment, or should I say the Magnificent 7 (or maybe the Magnificent 6). Cramer may be forced to add TSLA back into the Magnificent 7 soon. Yesterday it seemed to find a bottom and this morning it is well above the 191.25 low I have been focused on.
I am not a fundamental guy, I do read what some smart people say and what some dumb people say, and the fundamental picture doesn’t seem great, this chart looks pretty good to me at the moment. I have two models for TSLA, a counter trend and a trend. The counter trend model got out at yesterday’s close, but the trend model is still long.
As far as the other Mag 7, AAPL was the only one in the red yesterday and it is weak pre market. I continue to believe you buy the Mag 7 on any weakness, but keep in mind AAPL earnings are 2/1.
All of the data we have this week is binary, but my sense is we are set up for more upside. My concern now is how much of that was used up yesterday? One reason I love mixing counter trend and trend. Most of our countertrend models got out at the close yesterday, while most of our trend models continue to be long.
Yesterday I pointed out the cryto miners, specifically CLSK which I own. It closed well off the highs, but still up big. So far so good this morning as well. Be careful with the miners as I think they are no more than trading vehicles, but I do think the spot ETFs are a long term positive for Bitcoin. We have a trend following model for Bitcoin that is currently out, but not far from generating a long signal.
China is one area we are short, and it is showing weakness again this morning.
I would expect at some point soon we will flip back long.
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Matthew Tuttle is the Chief Executive Officer and Chief Investment Officer of Tuttle Capital Management, LLC.
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