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Here is the playback of our panel on Leveraged & Single Stock ETFs for the Market Minds Summit

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Our Next Webinar:

Topic: How to Determine the Best Potential Investment Themes.

When: Oct 24,2024 11:00 AM Pacific Time

Register in advance for this webinar:

https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_nicbiSSlTwqTDXqOmfd1cA

Why Things Like Factors, Asset Classes, Styles, and Market Cap Diversification are Stupid.

Why most thematic ETFs suck.

How to use first-order, second-order, and third-order thinking to pick stocks and ETFs with the best potential upside.

One below-the-radar theme that could end up being extremely relevant regardless of who wins the election.

For Investment Pros Only

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Themes

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Weight Loss Drugs

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Ozempic is transforming your gym-FT.com

Weight-loss drugs and a new focus on wellness are pushing many exercise machines towards obsolescence

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This is an example of third order thinking. First order is the obvious beneficiaries of a theme, second order are the ancillary names you need to make a theme work and other beneficiaries. Third order are the companies that will be hurt. Was short PLNT a while back and quite honestly got lucky when they went woke. Nice rally since May but would like to get short this name again. Maybe if it breaks the 50 day.

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Weight-Loss Drugs Are Everywhere Now. How the GLP-1 Copycats Took Over.-Barron's

More people appear to be clicking through. It’s hard to say exactly how many patients are taking the knockoff drugs, but Noom’s CEO, Geoff Cook, says he believes the number is over one million. Analysts at Citi Research have estimated that Hims & Hers alone could be selling its copycat GLP-1 drugs to 100,000 users by the end of this year.

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This is interesting. HIMS is a name I had been short, unfortunately not at the moment as it is getting crushed this morning. This appears to be the culprit......

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Hims & Hers Shares Fall as Lilly Weight-Loss Drug Shortage Ends

By Subrat Patnaik

(Bloomberg) -- Shares of Hims & Hers Health, a telehealth platform that has been selling compounded semaglutide to treat obesity, falls 6.8% in premarket trading on Thursday after the FDA said that Eli Lilly’s blockbuster weight-loss and diabetes drugs are no longer considered to be in shortage in the US.

• Lilly Weight-Loss Drug Copycats Dealt Blow as Shortage Ends (2) 
  • FDA says Zepbound, Mounjaro no longer in short supply in US
  • NOTE: The FDA first put the shortage classification in place at the end of 2022
• BMO Capital Markets analyst Evan Seigerman says FDA confirming that tirzepatide is no longer in drug shortage is “a clear positive for Lilly’s manufacturing capabilities”
  • “Removal of tirzepatide from FDA shortage list further puts pressure on compounded GLP-1s”
  • This could now allow Lilly to “continue to grow market share in incretin products as manufacturing continues to expand”
  • BMO has an outperform rating on Eli Lilly; PT $1,101

I'm going to keep an eye on the stock, may get interesting if it moves into the 50 or 200 day.

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Meanwhile......

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Novo Nordisk Is Still a Buy, Analysts Say. Slowing Growth for Ozempic and Wegovy Isn’t a Problem.-Barron's

NOVO is expected to present critical results from a trial of its CagriSema weight-loss injection in the fourth quarter. Deutsche Bank believes the data will re-establish Novo as the “best-in-disease offering in the injectable obesity space.”

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Politically Neutral

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Big believer that companies should be neutral, but don't think who a founder supports is going to matter much, if at all, to the stock price.

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Go Woke Go Broke: Netflix Cancellations Surge After Co-Founder Donates to Kamala Harris-Townhall

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Another example of why you should be politically neutral....

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Harley-Davidson Stock Is Falling. A Former Bull Left the Pack.-Barron's

Kennison checked in with dealers to see how the quarter was going. “Dealers reported weak retail, excess inventory, and caustic sentiment,” he wrote. None of that is good and “suggest[s] risk to guidance.”

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Disney Shares Downgraded as Theme Parks Face More Trouble, Woke Streaming Series Flop-Breitbart

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AI

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Nvidia may have yet another advantage in AI — and this one is less appreciated-MarketWatch

What does that mean for Nvidia? The potential for continued strong training trends “is likely constructive for Nvidia at this point,” as the company “currently dominates the vast majority of [generative-AI] training infrastructure” and is “on the cusp of [its] new Blackwell product cycle which is likely fueling next-generation models.”

Meanwhile, after a rough day Tuesday, NVDA bounced and had an undercut & rally at it's 50 day. So far this morning it's green in a red tape. Short term traders should use the 50 day as a reference guide for long or short positions.

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Meta has a key asset in the AI race — and that spurs a new bullish stock call-MarketWatch

Meta Platforms Inc. has one key advantage as the market assesses the winners and losers of the artificial-intelligence race — and that’s Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg, according to one analyst.

“In a world that is constantly changing, fueled by the rapid development of AI, we feel comfortable that Zuckerberg can successfully navigate Meta to the win,” Pivotal Research Group analyst Jeff Wlodarczak wrote Tuesday.

META is currently not one of my long term AI theme holdings, I do trade it in 3 shorter term counter trend models.

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GOOGL is a name I hold in my long term AI portfolio. What AI can do never ceases to amaze me. Third order thinking here you would think this could supplant human podcasts, not sure there is a stock to short here though.....

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I’m Listening to Podcasts Created by Google’s AI. It Could Be a ChatGPT Moment.-Barron's

The new product takes a piece of content, say a Wikipedia page, and turns it into a podcast, with the AI powering a dialogue between two hosts. The conversation includes smart insights and convincing banter. It sounds like science fiction, but it’s very real—and available to users today.

Argentina

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Been looking for a spot to get back into the Argentine names as some bad news about poverty levels has caused some dips. Added YPF on an undercut and rally at the 50 day. Still have other names I am watching.

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Edges

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3 non-edges I would ignore:

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Why the dubious ‘sell Rosh Hashanah, buy Yom Kippur’ investing strategy looks even more complicated this October-MarketWatch

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October tends to be a positive month for stocks — unless a presidential election is looming-MarketWatch

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Cling to cash? This chart shows how stocks, bonds perform around U.S. elections-MarketWatch

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I would be looking for spots to fade this move......

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Energy Boost: Oil Stocks’ Run Isn’t Over as Iran-Israel Tension Escalates-Barron's

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OIH and XOP are both below their 200 day moving averages and are both on my short watchlist. My short model looks to go short ETFs that are below their 200 days but are ripping to the upside. If I was playing at home a failure at the 200 day would be a good spot to short IMHO and would actually be real close to the level that would get me short.

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Everything Else

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TSLA was down 3.49% on Q3 deliveries. Would like to see the 20 day EMA hold if you are a bull.

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Yen Extends Steep Fall on Dimming Hopes of Early BOJ Rate Hike-Yahoo

The yen extended its drop on Thursday after new Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba jolted foreign exchange markets the day before by saying the economy isn’t ready for another interest-rate hike and triggering the currency to weaken the most in more than two years versus the dollar.